Quick Post: Starhill Global REIT Still Rising?

Quick Post:

As my holdings in Starhill Global isn't for trading reasons, I'm more concerned at the longer term view of the stock. 

This is the fourth time Starhill Global is challenging current resistance at $0.625. All the failed attempts saw the stock making higher lows with support increasing in bouts of $0.005 - from $0.605 to $0.61 to $0.615 to its current price of $0.62. We also see the formation of an ascending triangle which suggests prices may breakout and rise further.

Here's the weekly chart for a clearer view:

Furthermore, all moving averages are lined up positively indicating that the uptrend is still intact.

Fundamentally, the numbers are as such:

Share Price: $0.625

NAV: $0.89

Price to Book: 0.702

Discount to NAV: 30%

Gearing: 31%

Interest Cover: 3.4 (FY) , 3.06 (9mth)

Dividend Yield: 6.352%

We also know Singapore's economy is picking up and there has been an increase in the number of tourists. Furthermore, locationwise, Starhill Global occupies probably the next best plot in Orchard, with Wisma and Ngee Ann City standing right next to CapitaMall's Ion Orchard shopping centre. 

My take: With this in mind, Starhill Global, being undervalued, is still a good investment currently with a higher chance that prices will continue to trend upwards. Furthermore, gearing and interest cover are  comfortable. However, you may want to enter at the support prices. That said, the breakout may be arriving soon.

Cheers,

~K

CapitaMall REIT Making A Double Bottom

In the last chart on the 27th of Nov, I mentioned that CapitaMall was downtrending. Also to quote the entire paragraph for refresher sake, I posted that "the past three days have seen price seemingly stabilizing at $1.86 support, in hopes of rebounding upwards. A break below this may see price retreating to the next support at $1.81. To break out of the downtrend, price must head above $1.93. Only then can we expect price to head higher." See CapitaMall REIT in Trouble for further discussion.

On the 30th of Nov, prices dipped to $1.82 but broke out of its downtrend on the 2nd of Dec, closing at $1.96. After stabilizing for the next 2 weeks at $1.94 thereabouts, prices dipped back down to $1.85 on lower volume than the last dip to $1.82 suggesting that prices had reached a bottom. 

Today's charts indicate that a double bottom may have indeed been formed and prices are set to head upwards. Furthermore, indicators are all favourable. MACD and Stochastics have given a buy signal. RSI and OBV looks to be heading higher while MFI seems to have bottomed as well. This increases the odds of prices rising. Support seems to be at the 14 day moving average at $1.90. Resistance remains at $1.97. The crossing of the 14dma with the 200dma should send prices higher but is not in sight at the moment. 

Again with a yield of only 4.85% and price to book ratio of 1.28, I'm not interested in the stock however, traders interested in capital gains may want to consider this. 

Not vested.

~K

CapitaMall started at Overweight by HSBC, target $2.22
Friday, 10 December 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Ascott's Bounce Unsuccessful

Last Friday, I commented that the spike in the share price of Ascott REIT seemed weak and that "Ascott's leap today did so on a rather small volume. Futhermore, you can notice the volume making lower highs. Such divergence in volume and price movement must be viewed with caution. Don't be an "ass caught" (pun intended) as prices may be sent downwards hereafter." See Ascott Reit Making A Weak Leap for details.

We can see from the chart that prices failed in its attempt to break through resistance at $1.28. However, as noted too that, "support seems to be strong from the collision of the 14day moving average with the 50dma at $1.22.", prices did indeed drop back to support levels ending the day at the predicted price.

But will the support hold?

Unfortunately, in the near term, the charts are rather unclear. There is no obvious trend from the indicators other than a slight dip in the MFI, a seeming plateauing of the OBV and a recent crossover in the Stochastics. These suggest selling and that prices could possibly dip for a couple more days but there is no strong trend from the ADX. MACD however looks set to cross, furthermore into negative territory which could drive prices down further.

However, as today's closing price coincides at the 14 day moving average, this may provide some stability in the price. The 50 dma too, trails at $1.21. As such, we might very well see prices hovering around its current support at $1.21 to $1.23 for the next few days.

That said, my personal opinion from all the clues and options is that I expect prices to drop a bit more before picking up, possibly even breeching $1.21 to its previous support at $1.20. As volume is still weak I doubt there'll be any testing of the $1.28 resistance any time soon.

Not vested,

~K

Ascott REIT Making A Weak Leap

In my previous post entitled Two Extremes: Starhub - Falling Star, Singpost - Blasting Off!, I noted the giant movement in prices in both Starhub and Singpost.

Today, Ascott Residence Trust, a subsidiary owned by Temasek Holdings (48.1% stake), is also another stock which made a nice leap upwards, trashing its resistance at $1.23 and headed to its next resistance of $1.28 where it closed. However a closer look at the chart below shows some uncertainty to this move.

Unlike Starhub and Singpost in the previous post, Ascott's leap today did so on a rather small volume. Futhermore, you can notice the volume making lower highs. Such divergence in volume and price movement must be viewed with caution. Don't be an "ass caught" (pun intended) as prices may be sent downwards hereafter.

Does this mean that prices won't head higher? No it does not. Prices may still breech resistance. However as the volume supporting this rise is low, the rise in price may only be temporary which may result in another pull back in the short term. 

On the other hand, support seems to be strong from the collision of the 14day moving average with the 50dma at $1.22. Furthermore with prices making higher lows, prices may rise higher thereafter. But once again, volume shrinking doesn't support this. So caution.

That said, personally with uncertainty lurking, yield at 5.8% and Price to Book at a premium of 1.04, I wouldn't invest at the moment as Ascott REIT is rather unattractive at current prices. 

Not vested.

~K

CapitaMall REIT in Trouble

All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able to discern this. ~ Miyamoto Musashi

Since 13th of Oct, CapitaMall has been downtrending. From the chart below, this doesn't look like it's going to change soon. OBV and MFI indicate strong distribution with lower highs being formed. Furthermore the 14day moving average seems to be heading straight for a collision path with the 200day m.a., probably forming a dead cross with it. To add to this, ADX is still rising indicating that the strength of the current trend is extremely strong with black candles marking the way down since the 9th of Nov and isn't giving any indication of letting up despite Stochastics and RSI being in oversold region. RSI has also formed lower highs which bodes negatively for CapitaMall as well.

On the bright side, the past three days have seen price seemingly stabilizing at $1.86 support, in hopes of rebounding upwards. A break below this may see price retreating to the next support at $1.81. To break out of the downtrend, price must head above $1.93. Only then can we expect price to head higher.

Personally, for long term investing and as an income stock, at current price to book ratio of 1.25 and yield of 5%, CapitaMall is unattractive as a buy.

Not vested. 

~K

Heightened risks for Singapore REITs - CIMB    
Thursday, 18 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore