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Saturday, November 27, 2010

CapitaMall REIT in Trouble


All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able to discern this. ~ Miyamoto Musashi

Since 13th of Oct, CapitaMall has been downtrending. From the chart below, this doesn't look like it's going to change soon. OBV and MFI indicate strong distribution with lower highs being formed. Furthermore the 14day moving average seems to be heading straight for a collision path with the 200day m.a., probably forming a dead cross with it. To add to this, ADX is still rising indicating that the strength of the current trend is extremely strong with black candles marking the way down since the 9th of Nov and isn't giving any indication of letting up despite Stochastics and RSI being in oversold region. RSI has also formed lower highs which bodes negatively for CapitaMall as well.


On the bright side, the past three days have seen price seemingly stabilizing at $1.86 support, in hopes of rebounding upwards. A break below this may see price retreating to the next support at $1.81. To break out of the downtrend, price must head above $1.93. Only then can we expect price to head higher.

Personally, for long term investing and as an income stock, at current price to book ratio of 1.25 and yield of 5%, CapitaMall is unattractive as a buy.

Not vested. 
~K

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