tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-42483301297165050962024-03-13T20:10:28.818+08:00The Rich Kid WannabeThere are many factors that make up a rich life.
This blog will contain my journey to live a rich and fulfilling life. The main focus will be on money management, wealth and investments. However experiences and thoughts on travel, relationships, charity, and anything else that enriches my life will also be added.Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.comBlogger90125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-56088155629452291962011-02-18T12:44:00.011+08:002011-02-18T13:02:04.514+08:00The Power of Introductions<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6YhpXzDoCNivhjt7F8iYBwj2oscnrUgRfcCjmnYVnK4i7WMDFZ6ziLIpwwSftyF_aPzIEOFkYJzOhbVgoFHAQZCzTLlJBoNCmqEWd9S4SwsQf6XolVfb5I68cVrxEzSmc14jZ6yPGuhE/s1600/azemichi_a_path_between_rice_fields.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6YhpXzDoCNivhjt7F8iYBwj2oscnrUgRfcCjmnYVnK4i7WMDFZ6ziLIpwwSftyF_aPzIEOFkYJzOhbVgoFHAQZCzTLlJBoNCmqEWd9S4SwsQf6XolVfb5I68cVrxEzSmc14jZ6yPGuhE/s320/azemichi_a_path_between_rice_fields.jpg" width="225" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. </i><br />
<i>~ Confucius</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><i><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">You know what I always find hardest when it comes to writing? The introduction. It seems that whenever I have an idea to write about something, I encounter the most trouble in that section - the introduction. It’s the starting that’s the most difficult and the deciding factor if the piece makes it to keeps or is discarded with a touch of the delete icon. Maybe that’s because I place a lot of emphasis on it – the introduction. And why not? Introductions are of utmost importance yet are often overlooked. They have the power to make or break a piece and even put people off totally from reading what you have to say. But this doesn’t just apply to writing. A good introduction affects just about anything and leaves a lasting impression. Observe.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">First dates<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Dialogue: “Hi, really glad to meet you. You look great.”</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Gestures: [winning smile]</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Versus</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Dialogue: “Hey. Glad to meet you.”</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Gestures: [yawning] [scratching]</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Job Interviews<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Dialogue: “It’s a pleasure to meet you.” </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Gestures: [confident smile and handshake]</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Versus</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Dialogue: “Pleasure to meet you.”</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Gestures: [stammering] [timid handshake]</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Meeting Your Future-in-Laws For the First Time Over Dinner<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Dialogue: “Hello Auntie, Uncle. It’s nice to meet you. Thank you for inviting me to dinner.”</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Gestures: [winning smile]</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Versus</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Dialogue: “Hello Auntie, Uncle. It’s nice to meet you.”</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Gestures: [nervous smile]</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Now while I only focused on only two aspects in a physical introduction – dialogue and gesticulations, it’s obviously apparent just how a bad introduction could drastically affect a good message. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">And so it is with writing. Dive straight into a topic and some people may get lost and click the back or close icon of their browser. Write too long an introduction and risk people zoning out. Close browser. Write a weak introduction and have people label the article “boring” while skimming over the words, trying to absorb without understanding. Click back. No, that simply doesn’t work. If you’ve something to say and you want people to hear you, a good introduction is key. Click back and close browser must not be an option.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">It’s said that impressions are made in the first 5 seconds from the time two people meet each other. I believe that also applies in writing. Note to self: Click back and close browser must not be an option.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Repeat: Click back and close browser must not be an option.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Cheers,</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">~K</span></div></div></i>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-67165312846268020102011-02-02T13:16:00.021+08:002011-02-18T11:39:59.502+08:00100th Post Celebration and a Happy Chinese New Year, With a More Important Note<div style="text-align: justify;">Here's wishing everyone a happy and prosperous Chinese New Year. Also, this happens to be my 100th post so it's a double celebration for me. =)</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">While we're celebrating, I thought it would be good to incorporate some social responsibility as elaborated by the posters below. A picture does say a thousand words anyway.</div><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3T6tihGhhDpIEf8DiyKxafQX8WwaTriX3hH_vMXu1Y-qf00PP_CHTCMzbYw1shGDsEeb8VDsj_Jp6NstU3-ANOJK-VyAeZxEe7nmqN2baVB3pQoze-jpAV9xmixGT5K8mtxJ4OaYPwLw/s1600/167674_138453819551934_123526994377950_252450_1780730_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3T6tihGhhDpIEf8DiyKxafQX8WwaTriX3hH_vMXu1Y-qf00PP_CHTCMzbYw1shGDsEeb8VDsj_Jp6NstU3-ANOJK-VyAeZxEe7nmqN2baVB3pQoze-jpAV9xmixGT5K8mtxJ4OaYPwLw/s320/167674_138453819551934_123526994377950_252450_1780730_n.jpg" width="237" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwZV1O2GH3H7DlCeIKNUnFBAX4sYxbpCbEwF6l2b7K9xDhdX2lEhI2gppGBwInq0mmRrPzbKiFRIsj2DDZK8Ke1CZQ9UhY6gWyQo6RBdRgN95xCU-9ZEPk13af_M2LSNOgdjWm8a874Jc/s1600/166652_10150091159613522_546943521_6097687_5580639_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwZV1O2GH3H7DlCeIKNUnFBAX4sYxbpCbEwF6l2b7K9xDhdX2lEhI2gppGBwInq0mmRrPzbKiFRIsj2DDZK8Ke1CZQ9UhY6gWyQo6RBdRgN95xCU-9ZEPk13af_M2LSNOgdjWm8a874Jc/s320/166652_10150091159613522_546943521_6097687_5580639_n.jpg" width="267" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">And while some of you may have objections on shark fin soup. Perhaps the videos below may enlighten you on the importance of their roles in maintaining our environment and life and the danger that they are seriously in. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Rob Steward's Sharkwater received numerous awards, 33 at current count, and positive reviews, in recognition for all the effort Steward put into making this movie, even putting his own life on the line to capture the truth. In my opinion, it is one of the best shark documentaries I've ever watched. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">I hope you check it out. And give us a chance.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Cheers,</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">~K</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Highly Recommended Videos on the Importance of Sharks</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 01/09</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/sZHUe7xm-PY" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 02/09</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/h91ukCzwE14" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 03/09</b></div><div><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/VPO4OBXyNNc" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 04/09</b></div><div><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Up2Ns3ZKa9U" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div><b><br />
</b></div><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 05/09</b></div><div><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/k6aRbJf1Kn4" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div><br />
</div><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 06/09</b></div><div><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/qBTTQBAzpy0" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div><br />
</div><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 07/09</b></div></span></b></div><div><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Qo2ebDAVHi4" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div><br />
</div><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 08/09</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/1kOxh90_YMM" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"></span></b></div><b><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: left;"><b>Sharkwater 09/09</b></div><div><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/iRm6OKiky0c" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div><br />
</div><div><b></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div></b></span><b></b><br />
<div><b><br />
</b></div></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div></span></b></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-13922917816399250642011-02-01T13:33:00.007+08:002011-02-01T13:51:59.918+08:00Starhub - Which Way Will It Go?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3sn45R9FMtn9lox6A82pduJJvtI3wAJr31QU8AdRvxk2lzJrR3AyQTquCYMpM7X3SBv6V1sTncx98Bc4xMOJKqvGY1r4cbW3NVEYn9csp2kTPiNkcIfiiXz9neudTRwa1VRxV095oB0s/s1600/1031mobileontv6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3sn45R9FMtn9lox6A82pduJJvtI3wAJr31QU8AdRvxk2lzJrR3AyQTquCYMpM7X3SBv6V1sTncx98Bc4xMOJKqvGY1r4cbW3NVEYn9csp2kTPiNkcIfiiXz9neudTRwa1VRxV095oB0s/s200/1031mobileontv6.jpg" width="172" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Starhub has been stubbornly clinging on to its downtrend for more than two months now. Closing three in fact. Twice I blogged about a breakout in the making and twice it didn't materialize. Good news didn't seem to matter to the public who were already set in their negative sentiment (see <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2010/12/starhub-breakout-in-making.html">Starhub: Breakout in the Making?</a>). Even the 100 day moving average support, which I had hope in to hold the fort, so to speak, fell apart (see <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2011/01/starhub-opportunity-to-buy-in-may-be.html">Starhub: Opportunity to Buy In May Be Near at Hand</a>) resulting in prices crumbling quickly thereafter. </div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3HGTMmtkS8F8wMUXr2nsfa4usTX-PTHsZmvFavRRihBdw0M5LfQJexB3Cgs7PAIXaB9dhaiUOI3tOvySVPxWQgzXwE43ff4hOeLWX-WKzsOm4-bW5FU0DirGCt5HuR4gW_7vhl4WieOo/s1600/2011Jan-StarHub-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3HGTMmtkS8F8wMUXr2nsfa4usTX-PTHsZmvFavRRihBdw0M5LfQJexB3Cgs7PAIXaB9dhaiUOI3tOvySVPxWQgzXwE43ff4hOeLWX-WKzsOm4-bW5FU0DirGCt5HuR4gW_7vhl4WieOo/s320/2011Jan-StarHub-800x600.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">To make matters worst, candlesticks in the last three days show strong pressure from above determined to push prices down further, with 2 gravestone dojis forming in succession, one longer than the other. However, prices were unable to penetrate $2.53 for the two consecutive days before that perhaps forming a floor beneath. In fact if we look back at the charts, we would see that $2.53 did provide some support in October last year.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Also, prices, at the moment, seem resilient and intent on holding firm. However we didn't see a lot of buyers a day after that long ugly black candle day back in Dec, so I'm not so sure about the reliability of the support despite driving prices back up. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">And since all looks quite ill, now I'm just toying with this idea, but doesn't that formation remind you of a heads and shoulder, albeit lopsided? Or would this just be a manifestation of seeing what wants to see to fit the scenario, in this case negativity?</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO9xhi6ExyuY1lLVkzHURvAurKB7p0BpcTwSxMyqOjq7-RUGo3REUsJU3nj7rpvdducj3YOrwPFNqhIhW3Oscog4Hfw9AxY7j-S-qvf4t7omBcFrIQZAE6LBthC6O8FaLY2sRM44U7K_Q/s1600/starhub+h%2526S.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiO9xhi6ExyuY1lLVkzHURvAurKB7p0BpcTwSxMyqOjq7-RUGo3REUsJU3nj7rpvdducj3YOrwPFNqhIhW3Oscog4Hfw9AxY7j-S-qvf4t7omBcFrIQZAE6LBthC6O8FaLY2sRM44U7K_Q/s320/starhub+h%2526S.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Well if that's the case, we should worry if prices break the neckline at where the current support lies. If that happens, we could see prices plummet to $2.48 or even to its 200dma. Just something to take note of.<br />
<br />
But that said, prices seem to be withstanding the hammer blows from above for now and as such a triangle may form and it could be really soon before prices breakout from its downtrend and head upwards especially since price lows are higher and since the triangle really has not much space to run anymore. This seems the more likely of the two formations. Plus when you have to force a formation into the chart, like I did with the heads and shoulders, it usually is wrong. So my opinion is that things could head this direction rather than the other. But I could be mistaken yet again for the third time and strike out.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYa9kWQKzbPuVaLtk-QLp0Rn_3TnCXc8KzFGWc9nIA2ax4CT8H1r58jNyj2dMqLIiLeXI4aaugsElhLtJdyjrLOzDp815ifmXAbv1ClR-ZB7ZxZr6oZ5-QE8m87_pUBTPmQQTfAVJMTpQ/s1600/Starhub+Triangle.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYa9kWQKzbPuVaLtk-QLp0Rn_3TnCXc8KzFGWc9nIA2ax4CT8H1r58jNyj2dMqLIiLeXI4aaugsElhLtJdyjrLOzDp815ifmXAbv1ClR-ZB7ZxZr6oZ5-QE8m87_pUBTPmQQTfAVJMTpQ/s320/Starhub+Triangle.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">With a dividend yield of 7.4% and p/e of 13.65, Starhub could be quite attractive as an income stock. However as mentioned before, maintaining its current dividend is something that has analysts concerned.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
Perhaps this is a view shared by many and is the reason why share price seems intent on falling lower - to make up for the coming "falling dividend" yet maintaining the yield? The warning bells are chiming. Or are they? </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Senior Guru blogger Drizzt has done a terrific job at analyzing the telcos. You can read more at his blog, <i><a href="http://www.investmentmoats.com/">Investment Moats</a></i> on Starhub's yield maintenance (<a href="http://www.investmentmoats.com/stock-market-commentary/value-investing/starhub-q2-2010-resultsdeclining-earning-escalating-costs/">see here</a>), its debt (see <a href="http://www.investmentmoats.com/money-management/dividend-investing/of-starhubs-enormous-debt-explained/">here</a>) as well as on how prices adjust due to people determine to upkeep their yield (see <a href="http://www.investmentmoats.com/money-management/dividend-investing/stock-valuation-and-dividend-sensitivity-analysishow-does-price-and-dividend-affect-each-other/">here</a>). I guess his blog was voted the Top Stock Market Blog in 2010 for good reason. =)</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">On other news, Starhub has teamed up in a venture with Japan's Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp to jointly build and operate submarine cables that will connect East Asia's business hubs. (You can read the news <a href="http://www.todayonline.com/Business/EDC110201-0000210/StarHubs-$550m-project-to-keep-you-connected">here</a>.) Though revenues are expected to rise, we can all expect costs will as well. Will this venture increase their free cash flows that will allow Starhub to maintain its dividends yet still leave ample capital to grow is a question I can't answer. Earnings announcement on the 11th of Feb by the way. Stay tune!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">P.S. What started out as a quick post turned out to get dragged as I realized there was more news to consolidate. Apologies and thanks for reading to the end. Vested interest btw.<br />
<br />
<b></b></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-14808269341036026592011-02-01T00:35:00.007+08:002011-02-01T00:40:29.759+08:00Singpost - What the Analysts are Saying<div style="text-align: justify;"><b><u>OCBC</u></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Steady 3QFY11 results</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>QFY11 results in line with expectations.</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 6.3% YoY rise in revenue to S$148.5m and a 0.7% drop in net profit to S$43.8m in 3QFY11, such that 9MFY11 net profit accounted for 74.7% of our full year estimates and 78.5% of Bloomberg’s mean consensus. Excluding one-off items such as amortization of deferred gain on intellectual property rights and benefits from the Jobs Credit Scheme (in 3QFY10), underlying net profit increased 5.1% YoY to S$40.9m.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Growth in mail and logistics businesses. </b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Mail revenue grew 7.5% YoY on the back of strong growth in the direct mail business and better economic conditions, while international mail was underpinned by growth in e-commerce activities. More transshipment and vPOST shipping activities contributed to the 10.2% YoY increase in logistics revenue, but operating profit from this division declined as transshipment generally has lower margins.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Diversifying its businesses and markets. </b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Management reiterated that it continues to face “formidable challenges” in the postal industry, driven by factors such as e-substitution. With the global trend of declining mail volumes, the group wants to reduce its reliance on mail revenue and diversify its revenue base. Indeed, the mail division’s contribution to total revenue has fallen steadily from 77% in FY08 to 68% in 9MFY11. However, being Singapore’s dominant postal operator, SingPost will still focus on the mail business to meet the changing and growing needs of its customers, while expanding its logistics and retail divisions. The group is also exploring acquisition opportunities to grow its businesses in the region.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Maintain HOLD. </b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">To accelerate the group’s transformation and growth, SingPost has announced an organizational restructuring in which there will be a CEO in charge of Postal and Corporate Services while another CEO will focus on the international business. We are positive on this latest development as the segregation of duties should result in a sharper focus on both the mail business (faces own challenges in the industry) and the group’s international expansion efforts (essential to seek new growth drivers). Meanwhile, we continue to await news on the M&A front. An interim dividend of S$0.0125/share has been declared, in line with the group’s usual practice. Though the stock has an estimated dividend yield of 5.3%, there is limited upside potential to our DCFbased fair value estimate of S$1.16. Hence we maintain our HOLD rating.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><u>DBSV</u></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>New CEO (International) for Regional Expansion</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>At a Glance</b></div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Net profit of S$43.8m (-0.7% yoy, +10.0% qoq) and quarterly DPS of 1.25 Scents were in line.</li>
</ul><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">The appointment of new CEO for international business shows regional focus. Regional M&A and share buybacks cannot be ruled out.</li>
</ul><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Maintain HOLD with DDM-based S$1.17 TP (cost of equity 7.7%, growth rate 2%). We have assumed that dividends can grow by 2% p.a. in the long term.</li>
</ul><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Comment on results</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Net profit of S$43.8m (-0.7% yoy, +10.0% qoq) was in line. Mail segment grew strongly by 7.5% yoy on the back of direct and international mail, benefiting from higher business activities. This offset the impact of higher terminal dues (about S$2-3m impact in FY11F) and absence of benefits from job credit scheme (S$5m adverse impact in FY11F), which expired in June 2010. 9M11 earnings constitute 77% of our FY11F forecast. 3Q is typically the strongest quarter due to higher mail traffic during the festive season.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">New CEO (international) to drive regionalization. As Partner at McKinsey, Dr Wolfgang Baier, has been working with Singpost for the last five years and has extensive experience in Asian and Western markets. He will be driving the logistics and retail business, which can expand further regionally. With S$200m raised through bond-issue in March 2010, Singpost has enough muscle to acquire small companies. Given that Singpost has a mandate to buy 10% of its shares, share buy backs cannot be ruled out either in our view.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Recommendation</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">We do not see any risk to its dividend payout and recommend HOLD with DDM-based TP of S$1.17.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><u>Kim Eng</u></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Still waiting for fresh catalysts</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Event</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">SingPost did as well as can be expected. In other words, we expected its mail business to reflect the current economic strength, and it did. But the logistics and retail businesses did not do so well profit‐wise due to lower margin components coming to the fore. If this is the best it can do despite the economy firing on all cyclinders, then it needs to move faster on its regionalisation and diversification plans. Perhaps the recent management restructuring will speed things along. Meanwhile, HOLD for the yield of 5+%.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Our View</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Net profit of $43.8m was flat YoY. Underlying net profit, excluding one‐off items such as the $2.9m amortisation of deferred gain on IP rights and benefits from the Jobs Credit scheme which ended in June 2010, was lower at $40.9m, though still 5% higher from a year ago. The usual quarterly dividend of 1.25 cents was also declared.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Mail business did the best on stronger domestic, international and hybrid mail volume, with EBIT growth outpacing revenue growth. However, Logistics margins were affected by lower margin activities such as transhipment as opposed to higher margin customized logistics, while Retail profit fell on lower agency and retail activities.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Perhaps sensing investors’ impatience with its long‐promised regionalisation and diversification, SingPost recently appointed two CEOs. An ex‐McKinsey consultant will now accelerate its expansion in the region and diversify into non‐postal businesses. Incumbent CEO Ng Hin Lee will lead postal services and strategic acquisitions.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Action & Recommendation</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">We maintain our HOLD recommendation, mainly for the yield of 5%. Our target price has been raised to $1.29 as we roll over to FY12, still on 15x target PE.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">P.S. I have <a href="http://yieldstocks.reitdata.com/">SGX Yield Stocks</a> to thank for compiling the info.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><b></b>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-62653724342420502892011-01-31T18:33:00.005+08:002011-01-31T19:02:30.689+08:00Ever Wondered How the Money Supply Grows in Singapore?<div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrlRkVQw7L-u5jzKUP9BdhSabyfX4ZycCy9N6vNHtEfXjo_IM7wI7QOb-nvA9o5bmYmcINA6xRR81L_H7L-zYKoHwp5BkYuR9sszy4PLRGK5G7pwy7t8oRYdng5P01dLxKnJDdY0MhuaI/s1600/printing-money1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrlRkVQw7L-u5jzKUP9BdhSabyfX4ZycCy9N6vNHtEfXjo_IM7wI7QOb-nvA9o5bmYmcINA6xRR81L_H7L-zYKoHwp5BkYuR9sszy4PLRGK5G7pwy7t8oRYdng5P01dLxKnJDdY0MhuaI/s200/printing-money1.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>Linking the thought from the video in my previous post, <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2011/01/thanks-to-ffnow-for-bringing-this-great.html">The Real Truth About Fiat Money and the Banking System</a>, I came across an article from the recent edition of <i>the</i> <i>Business Times Weekend</i> explaining how inflation occurs in Singapore. In it the author, Senior Correspondent<i> Teh Hooi Ling</i>, explains that it was through watching the video titled "<i>Zeitgeist-Addendum</i>" on <i>YouTube</i> that eventually lead her to think how money supply in Singapore is created despite the government running a budget surplus year after year.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">By definition M2 is the money supply in Singapore consisting of currency in active circulation, demand deposits of the private sector, fixed deposits, Singdollar negotiable certificates of deposits, savings and other deposits. At the end of 2000, M2 stood at S$170.9 billion. By end Nov 2010, M2 had exploded, more than doubling to S$401.4 billion. That's an increase of 8.9% p.a. for the past 10 years. In comparison, the data given in article stated that GDP had grown only about 6.4% p.a. during the same period.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">So how does money supply grow in Singapore?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">For that I'll leave you to the author herself to explain, extracting a part of the article so you can read it verbatim, highlighting what I felt were the important bits to take note of.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">"I came across a document entitled <i>Monetary Policy Operations in Singapore</i> on the <a href="http://www.mas.gov.sg/">Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) website</a>. The 32-page document highlights the key aspects of MAS's monetary policy policy operations, and the various factors and considerations underlying them.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The four primary responsibilities of MAS are:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">Implementation of exchange rate policy;</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Conduct of money market operations for banking system liquidity management;</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Management/issuance of Singapore Government Securities (SGS) in support of government initiatives in bond market development; and</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Provision of banking and financial services to the government</li>
</ul><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">MAS's balance sheet looks like this: </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">On the assets side, a big chunk is in foreign assets, i.e. the official foreign reserves of Singapore. MAS also holds an inventory of SGS. It also has domestic credits, that is lending to banks in the course of conducting money market operations for liquidity management in the banking system.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">On its liability side, the biggest component is government deposits. These are surpluses that the Singapore government run year after year. Also in this pool are contributions of members to the Central Provident Fund (CPF). Also on the liability side is currency in circulation. Under the provisions of the Currency Act, <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">each Singdollar must be fully backed by foreign assets</span>. <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">As we all know, Singapore's monetary policy targets neither the interest rate nor monetary aggregate. It is centred on the trade-weighted exchange rate. As such, the monetary base is also endogenous, and its level is based more on banks' demand for reserve and settlement balances.</span></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">So this is my understanding of how the money supply of Singapore has been growing all these years. Say a foreign company wants to set up factory in Singapore because of the good infrastructure here and the convincing marketing campaign by the Economic Development Board.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">The foreign firm brings in US$100 million.<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"> It needs to convert that amount to Singapore dollars to pay for the construction cost of its building, to pay utilities bills and salaries of its staff. So demand for the Singdollar increases. If the aggregate demand for the Singdollar far exceeds the supply in the market, the local unit will appreciate too fast and make Singapore exporters uncompetitive. So since MAS's mandate is to manage the Singdollar's trade-weighted exchange rate, it will intervene by selling Singdollar to meet the demand and buy the US dollar</span>. </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">That's how money supply in Singapore grows over time. Among other reasons, <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;">demand for the currency also rises when Singapore exporters want to convert revenues in US dollars back to Singdollar, or when foreign investors are keen to invest, say, in real estate in the Lion City</span>, given its safe haven status and its emergence as a global city. </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH3fgT8eEUn0L4ONALhV-zDQTvYYaQFMk-EBKVSAmaWrQb08pWfMJj39O1l058lG9RCoEx4yHb0hfskFuyOVbR4CM3a9VO5rYwfn2pG9qxQjecigBf5P5meCwsLHAtrqYzF9JsLWu4Fk8/s1600/IMG_0588.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjH3fgT8eEUn0L4ONALhV-zDQTvYYaQFMk-EBKVSAmaWrQb08pWfMJj39O1l058lG9RCoEx4yHb0hfskFuyOVbR4CM3a9VO5rYwfn2pG9qxQjecigBf5P5meCwsLHAtrqYzF9JsLWu4Fk8/s320/IMG_0588.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
</div></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">I've charted how Singapore's GDP in current market prices and how Singapore's M2 money supply have grown since 1980. The ratio of M2 to GDP has been rising through the years. Prior to 1998, total M2 had always been lower than the aggregate GDP. But that changed in 1998, and by end of 2009, M2 is 140% that of Singapore's GDP. Is it a wonder then that real estate prices have been so bouyant in the last few years?"</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Source: The Business Times Weekend</span></i></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Title: How Money Grows in Singapore</span></i></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Section: Show Me The Money</span></i></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">For the curious and those with lots of time to spare, I've linked the <i>Zeitgeist-Addendum</i> video as well as the follow up movie below.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers,</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div></div><div><br />
</div><div><b>Zeitgeist-Addendum</b></div><div><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/EewGMBOB4Gg" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe></div><div><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<b>Zeitgeist-Addendum II</b><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/1gKX9TWRyfs" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-42500141476996830282011-01-31T15:41:00.006+08:002011-01-31T19:11:02.316+08:00The Real Truth About Fiat Money and the Banking System<div style="text-align: justify;">Thanks to ffnow for bringing this great cartoon video to attention. I'm putting it here as a easier reference for myself as I feel it's a good simple way to explain the situation at the moment in the US and how it came to that. You can read more great posts at his blog, <a href="http://financiallyfreenow.wordpress.com/">A Journey Towards Financial Freedom</a>. He has a really nice uncluttered site with lots of good nuggets. Thanks again ffnow.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
On another related news, this short review in <i>the Business Times Weekend</i> caught my attention as well. Do read it, it'll take less than 30 seconds to make you wonder about the truth about the video. In an even briefer briefing, the important point to note is that <u><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: red;"><b>spending isn't slowing and the deficit is heading to a mind-blowing US$1.5 trillion!</b></span></u> Just had to bold it for emphasis heh.<br />
<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K<br />
<br />
<b>US federal deficit heading for record US$1.5t</b><br />
<br />
Far from slowing, the US government's deficit spending will surge to a record US$1.5 trillion this year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated, blaming the slow economic recovery and last month's tax-cut law. What is more daunting for President Barack Obama is that it estimates a nation-wide unemployment rate of 8.2% on Election Day in 2012.<br />
<br />
<b>The Real Truth About Fiat Money and the Banking System</b></div><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="youtube-player" frameborder="0" height="340" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/yCdlsZLNSJE" title="YouTube video player" type="text/html" width="400"></iframe>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-61020255351404211522011-01-31T02:08:00.001+08:002011-01-31T02:11:26.873+08:00Identifying Your Fund Manager Styles<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIyzg-MS4PYZ0DOdZMU1y8c7nhQffsoYopl5X6x824qyMaVlI-hHU_KjOC6HiMrcHQ_IMijJwsKhbvDcCC5tRJzse9tsBmgT86WqGH27KUEEaRZmgCWirLVnKB1m4hITekHwKjEP0Bhp0/s1600/01hedge_337-span-articleLarge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIyzg-MS4PYZ0DOdZMU1y8c7nhQffsoYopl5X6x824qyMaVlI-hHU_KjOC6HiMrcHQ_IMijJwsKhbvDcCC5tRJzse9tsBmgT86WqGH27KUEEaRZmgCWirLVnKB1m4hITekHwKjEP0Bhp0/s200/01hedge_337-span-articleLarge.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Reading the <i>Business Times</i> this week, I came across an article within that had some pointers on creating an investment portfolio. While reading it though, it came across as quite generic and brief. As such, I pulled out the only section that I felt had some value - a section on knowing your fund managers investment style. </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Why is this important?</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">The author, <i>Mr. Edmund Teo, regional director, investment solutions, Asean, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India at Russell Investment</i>, says that "investors need to understand the style of different managers in their portfolio, and why they under or outperform in different market conditions. Employing manager and investment style diversification is critical for reduced volatility across market cycles." Perhaps, it may be good to give them a ring to find out their approach.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">In the article, Mr. Teo listed 3 types of styles. I would like to add a fourth. </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>1) Growth managers</b></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">These managers focus on companies whose earnings are growing faster than average. Often, these fast-growing companies will reinvest their profits back into their business, so the dividend yield (if any) could be lower than market average. But note that if growth slows, their stock prices are more likely to fall harder than average. </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>2) Value managers</b></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">These managers look out for and invest in undervalued companies whose true value has yet to be recognized which therefore gives the share price potential to rise upon realization by the market. They believe in the saying, "buy low, sell high". Often these companies are solid, but not spectacular performers with good cash flows and at times with dividend yields above market average. The risk of investing in undervalued companies is that these companies may remain undervalued for extended periods of time with no indication when share prices may rise.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>3) Market-oriented managers</b></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">These managers focus on themes within the market and the economy to decide on the companies to invest in that should outperform market averages. For example, if the manager feels that the Singapore dollar is about to rise, he or she might focus on increasing positions in companies that import goods while reducing holdings in companies heavily reliant on exports. The risk of this style is that themes can have short lives and catch investors unaware.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>4) Momentum managers</b></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">These managers look out for hot stocks and for stocks that though have risen a fair amount still have fuel to rise even higher. They believe in the saying, "buy high, sell higher". They look for companies that have made new highs, and/or show strong upward trends based on technical analysis. Constant positive earning surprises is one other criteria these managers scan for. The obvious risk is that prices are constantly undergoing corrections when prices rise too drastically. As such, momentum investing could go against managers who mistime the entry of their purchase.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hey, if any of you know of any more styles than is listed here, pls feel free to leave a comment below. And if you're willing, it'd be great to hear your investment style as well. =)</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers,</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-46184858854895528012011-01-28T17:57:00.012+08:002011-01-28T18:16:02.189+08:00Ascott REIT Still Under Pressure<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKVznxIuvQeRtrJ0DjV7GAlZmn0o3vrbFY67zDvf4ipfRE2qG-DydrVdd2DC1qmt33VT4N4-1vcdwweA87sG8j2RT2h8KAoW_F_JR2yYAGa03fmo_YVUshrLahv1rktKjBzWtZEtGcZhI/s1600/080b893600991_1_V235.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="97" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKVznxIuvQeRtrJ0DjV7GAlZmn0o3vrbFY67zDvf4ipfRE2qG-DydrVdd2DC1qmt33VT4N4-1vcdwweA87sG8j2RT2h8KAoW_F_JR2yYAGa03fmo_YVUshrLahv1rktKjBzWtZEtGcZhI/s200/080b893600991_1_V235.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It's been awhile since I updated the ongoings with Ascott REIT with my last post being more than a month ago (see <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2010/12/ascotts-bounce-unsuccessful.html">Ascott's Bounce Unsuccessful</a> for the detailed discussion). In that analysis, I highlighted that "<i>we might see hovering around its current support at $1.21 to $1.23 for the next few days.</i>" I also said that prices may "<i>even breech $1.21 to its previous support at $1.20. As volume is still weak I doubt there'll be any testing of the $1.28 resistance any time soon.</i>" Here's how that played out.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGDzHBi04AbqmC23vfnfJzsm7X9Y1h2lzVsi-ve9dpvx_cnOC8u7Hlajcs8e9bnkun54Y86-pShEnJ_EMp1ejk5OC9xftL-X5i9YWjCO1sXjoA7A1cE4JJLJy6jpAd1MEf88VTMKDjRlo/s1600/Ascott+plain.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGDzHBi04AbqmC23vfnfJzsm7X9Y1h2lzVsi-ve9dpvx_cnOC8u7Hlajcs8e9bnkun54Y86-pShEnJ_EMp1ejk5OC9xftL-X5i9YWjCO1sXjoA7A1cE4JJLJy6jpAd1MEf88VTMKDjRlo/s320/Ascott+plain.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">It's been more than a month and prices have still yet to come close to its previous resistance. Also, although the $1.20 wasn't breeched or reached firmly, prices did briefly touch for two days in a row before leap-frogging upwards for another failed rally.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Prices however remain steadfast with support of the 50 day moving average despite what seems to be quite a bit of pressure from the last three days. Furthermore, a gravestone doji forming yesterday doesn't bode well. So turning to the indicators, it may be possible to get some clues as to what can we expect next.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqtECPDAnNDyuCPf9NhaHxFUV_RFyqUMZEu_brWb27eT_WI9PXe210s3hne38OG122HZqwopB3qSRC8jb-oa-hOsPJlrLNDBPLAZeYgrDiZBtoYz45sCaH1QVAM9asmL6F9685-7Fvn14/s1600/2011Jan-AscottREIT-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqtECPDAnNDyuCPf9NhaHxFUV_RFyqUMZEu_brWb27eT_WI9PXe210s3hne38OG122HZqwopB3qSRC8jb-oa-hOsPJlrLNDBPLAZeYgrDiZBtoYz45sCaH1QVAM9asmL6F9685-7Fvn14/s320/2011Jan-AscottREIT-800x600.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">%R and OBV has dipped downwards with %K looking to be doing likewise. Also, although volume bars for the MACD seemed to be turning up, the action yesterday brought it back down once more. RSI too, hasn't turned up decisively which doesn't contradict the negative sentiments displayed by the other indicators. Furthermore, volume is lacking so it looks like price will remain weak for awhile.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI5uzQdTnzl1qsD94XxkYO14ZPc351U66p_SuagUuBps6fMiO6G4aXJ9cv4PGxfvctuWUAmypqQ4Q6Wy09YywQX045_s4-FR-XGq5i5ydgHFVtgVHjzqinWkd1uf70NJ2Nnva7JVq2D4c/s1600/2011Jan-AscottREIT-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI5uzQdTnzl1qsD94XxkYO14ZPc351U66p_SuagUuBps6fMiO6G4aXJ9cv4PGxfvctuWUAmypqQ4Q6Wy09YywQX045_s4-FR-XGq5i5ydgHFVtgVHjzqinWkd1uf70NJ2Nnva7JVq2D4c/s320/2011Jan-AscottREIT-800x600.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Looking at the other indicators, P&S shows that momentum is still down. ADX shows no strong trend developing with DI- and DI+ turning downwards. Confusing this is...However Bollinger bands and GMMA have entered a squeeze which could mean a sudden explosion of movement is arriving soon. But the million dollar question is...in which direction?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">My take:</div><div style="text-align: justify;">It is likely that prices are gonna be stuck in the range of $1.22 - $1.24 for awhile longer. However, as the pressure seems to be like a hammer on the 50dma, it wouldn't surprise me if support at the 50dma breaks and someone will sell out and release his/her shares at a lower price possibly causing prices to dip to their 100dma briefly. That's <i>briefly </i>because there are buyers waiting at $1.20. As such I remained undecided which direction the prices will take when the spurt occurs.<br />
<br />
On one hand, if the spurt happens, as hinted by the Bollinger Bands and GMMA, we may see prices catapult upwards like it did previously as indicators are mostly in the oversold region or heading there so there's a good chance that it may spring up instead of down. But if volume is not there to back it up like before, it may just turn out to be another fake rally. On the other hand, pressure from above may see prices drop to the 200dma instead.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">With a yield of 7.14%, gearing of 40% and a 5% discount to net asset value or a price to book of 95%, Ascott REIT may be better and more alluring as a dividend stock especially with backings from Temasek. However, in terms of growth, that remains a question.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Not vested,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-38168512746160429482011-01-28T14:49:00.001+08:002011-01-28T14:59:04.861+08:00ComfortDelgro - Break Out Nearing?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWvN1JrudXL_3ESuKxilWPo8EhMME8Ho_hfuM7EulRiTaBxztx44bUhZP5u4J_ltRpKITm-Y3ZFgkc7obw-TaOcp37hrUEuDTNqiuzQi4c19RMHk9tDWde8RvYpXQk50Qo11LBOE5_LdI/s1600/travel-pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWvN1JrudXL_3ESuKxilWPo8EhMME8Ho_hfuM7EulRiTaBxztx44bUhZP5u4J_ltRpKITm-Y3ZFgkc7obw-TaOcp37hrUEuDTNqiuzQi4c19RMHk9tDWde8RvYpXQk50Qo11LBOE5_LdI/s200/travel-pic.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Two weeks ago, in my last observation of ComfortDelgro (refer to<a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2011/01/comfort-cab-driving-up-fast.html"> Comfort Cab Speeding Up Too Fast?</a>), I gave the opinion that "<i>instead of...dropping back to its 14dma at $1.57, prices will continue hovering for the next couple of days while awaiting the 14dma to catch up with it</i>" and prices would likely "<i>bounce between $1.59 - $1.63</i>" and that "<i>I do not expect resistance to be taken out just yet.</i>" Here's the current chart to see how that turned out.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4yfoABsEiLHajsXyxzb975Ec3S8di8ym9mrBHKMOR2er8giRquxtw7vhFmZwl-tzu8QPAP6HPKgTHsszEUB-dTJ4o6lI8nvuVGbqoERlqOH7RSEpBZaL27pkY6P5duQMXD9xyb922fU/s1600/Comfort+plain.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4yfoABsEiLHajsXyxzb975Ec3S8di8ym9mrBHKMOR2er8giRquxtw7vhFmZwl-tzu8QPAP6HPKgTHsszEUB-dTJ4o6lI8nvuVGbqoERlqOH7RSEpBZaL27pkY6P5duQMXD9xyb922fU/s320/Comfort+plain.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">As we can see, prices bouncing around the mentioned range did occur and is still ongoing with resistance yet to be broken. On the downside, my estimate was short of 1 cent, with prices bouncing to $1.64 instead of $1.63. A mild underestimation I feel. However, upon experimenting with the moving averages, I realized that the 20 day moving average was more suitable as it seemed to provide more support compared to the 14dma. Here's the chart below:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7mqPI3qtK0gpgFrNpcaiqjEmBhyphenhyphenkXAVu2nFEHwwtnXYTlJysxvoz6oKSJofg4cO_2Ojd4k7OjK1TizW9IRjobtc5YwNA202_TZ6-bmfHy5U_dw88xDy-XRyHmneLEQj79-S4BrcHyI3I/s1600/Comfort+20dma.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7mqPI3qtK0gpgFrNpcaiqjEmBhyphenhyphenkXAVu2nFEHwwtnXYTlJysxvoz6oKSJofg4cO_2Ojd4k7OjK1TizW9IRjobtc5YwNA202_TZ6-bmfHy5U_dw88xDy-XRyHmneLEQj79-S4BrcHyI3I/s320/Comfort+20dma.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">That said, it leaves more room for prices to bounce while waiting for the 14dma and 20dma to catch up before breaking out. However, sometimes prices seem to just break without waiting for their moving averages. So to determine if a break out is nearing indicators would provide some clues.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTRHWdQF4d9GvTpo7i_6He_tpQAEMmGgbCqoDmE_3DXgCjoym7uKe0fuZuKJq8DIFABcsdMKrankcWMR5rhB7rmL63u22n_LoRAW9kFpOT_K-CDZaxh8EfBlAYn3LRzYNowgkUje2hXkk/s1600/2011Jan-ComfortDelGro-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTRHWdQF4d9GvTpo7i_6He_tpQAEMmGgbCqoDmE_3DXgCjoym7uKe0fuZuKJq8DIFABcsdMKrankcWMR5rhB7rmL63u22n_LoRAW9kFpOT_K-CDZaxh8EfBlAYn3LRzYNowgkUje2hXkk/s320/2011Jan-ComfortDelGro-800x600.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">As we can see, prices have moved into the overbought region in Stochastics and Williams%R, with RSI just bordering it for quite awhile now, showing good momentum in this stock. Furthermore OBV has yet to dip. MACD however, looks like it intends to intersect, which may led to some buying. However that said, the OBV and W%R has flattened out. Normally, when W%R flattens out, it is likely to head down. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">A quick check with the chart below shows that the ADX indicates that the trend is very weak with neither buying and selling gaining any upper hand. Futhermore, the GMMA shows that there's some pressure ongoing in the short term moving averages as the lines have yet to separate proper. However, the lines do seem like they're beginning to spread indicating positive momentum starting up.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq8M7JPWDIemS2JKotcrH_qiXxOgolMkudwgg-OIhV6NTiCzUeXyCZDyckRagvSnT1IQXkHVVMTwquhOTRfSB8EmjPUBUZsyYQiVAe0H16uEsNJf3780jr4Y8wQhnmvzqU_OBIB-cJRY8/s1600/2011Jan-ComfortDelGro-800x600.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq8M7JPWDIemS2JKotcrH_qiXxOgolMkudwgg-OIhV6NTiCzUeXyCZDyckRagvSnT1IQXkHVVMTwquhOTRfSB8EmjPUBUZsyYQiVAe0H16uEsNJf3780jr4Y8wQhnmvzqU_OBIB-cJRY8/s320/2011Jan-ComfortDelGro-800x600.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">My take: </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">It is possible that resistance will be taken out. However, I expect prices to remain trapped by the $1.64 - $1.61 range a bit longer supported by first the 14dma and then the 20dma, perhaps till mid or end of next week before clearer signals present themselves if a break out will occur. But for now, I don't think that will happen yet.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Again as mentioned in the last post, with "<i>a P/E of 15 and yield of 3.25%, anyone buying into this for dividend yield may find SBS Transit a more enticing buy at the moment with a lower P/E and a better yield.</i>" That said, it may be better to find yields outside the transport sector. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Not vested in either,</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">~K</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">P. S. I'm trying to decide is breakout one word or is it two? Does anyone know? =)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-24194311400196291602011-01-26T02:20:00.001+08:002011-01-26T02:22:29.978+08:00Gold & Silver Still in Correction PhaseQuick post:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0WsR2TGZej820Ga_6GPuoJ_v2HVYN-eScY5_IjtR9_ZgbFU4JE92cZ2b_EXbIOvB2gxQ_TNtxv7cre2rto_pt6wgP-QtaUFdA4TsUYxgZayyCTd1QNXZoaLmdTRMMJyJn0gLDHLGpOIQ/s1600/gold+.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0WsR2TGZej820Ga_6GPuoJ_v2HVYN-eScY5_IjtR9_ZgbFU4JE92cZ2b_EXbIOvB2gxQ_TNtxv7cre2rto_pt6wgP-QtaUFdA4TsUYxgZayyCTd1QNXZoaLmdTRMMJyJn0gLDHLGpOIQ/s320/gold+.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Gold Price</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDge60VzuBXI-dU1qtRNMeAArmadoSGECERFK9p3LUAh04r_aRT81jf_1CrStEeIpeNZ7TZhN6DmUYD6oR73UeddIy09ifGANfIq30Y3UiWBpSWZ_yRctqiaOMW1pZIaulykP8ezVByEQ/s1600/silver.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDge60VzuBXI-dU1qtRNMeAArmadoSGECERFK9p3LUAh04r_aRT81jf_1CrStEeIpeNZ7TZhN6DmUYD6oR73UeddIy09ifGANfIq30Y3UiWBpSWZ_yRctqiaOMW1pZIaulykP8ezVByEQ/s320/silver.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Silver Price</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><br />
Thanks to stockcharts free charting software, I was able to come up with the two charts above.<br />
<br />
As we can see, gold and silver are still in correction phase with no intention of lightening up. Williams %R, RSI, Stochastics and even the MACD and OBV (which I wasn't able to plot as the software only allows 3 indicators at a time) are all down and do not look to be turning up soon. Expect more selling in the coming days (maybe another week or two), possibly driving prices past its next support at US$1320 for gold, US$25 for silver. Gold could see price drop to its 200 day moving average if this occurs, with silver maybe heading to its next support at $23.50 thereabouts.<br />
<br />
There is a lot of fear in the market as with any massive selldowns. However, the fundamentals has not changed. Printing money is still occurring, debts have not been resolved, inflation is kicking in, currency wars, yadayadayada. The list goes on. Anyone looking to be invested, would be wise to wait for the indicators to turn up proper. Catching a falling knife is no fun at all. In the event that prices do turn up, I expect silver to perform a lot better than gold as silver still has a long way to go to break its all-time high.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">Best of luck,</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-71937858359635512222011-01-25T03:26:00.004+08:002011-01-25T03:34:26.199+08:00Inflation Kicking In<div style="text-align: justify;">A report on the Edge caught my attention today. Inflation seems to be starting to hit after all the money printing. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"></div><div><style type="text/css">
<!--.quote {width:350px; padding: 6px; border: solid 1px #456B8F; font: 10px helvetica, verdana, sans-serif; color: #222222; background-color: #ffffff}.quote a {font: 13px arial, serif; color: #003399; text-decoration: underline}.quote a:hover {color: #FF9900; }//-->
</style><br />
<div class="quote"><a href="http://theedgesingapore.com/the-daily-edge/business/25318-singapore-cpi-rise-beats-expectations-economists-flag-update.html" target="_blank">Singapore CPI rise beats expectations, economists flag: Update</a><br />
Monday, 24 January 2011<br />
<div align="right" style="width: 350px;"><div style="text-align: right;">© 2011 - <a href="http://theedgesingapore.com/" target="_blank">The Edge Singapore</a></div></div></div></div><div><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Despite the measures expected to curb inflation here in sunny, maybe too sunny, Singapore, it's apt to be mindful that some countries don't seem to be curbing inflation anytime soon, primarily U.S.. As precious metals, oil, and other commodities are traded in U.S. dollars, with rising prices due to rising inflation, perhaps investing in these may turn this "trend" into a friend.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY0qI5PTgRk7sSVSc9qkfWTNarWXpmpHaHhaWLKET2mGORXj6DdaxfZ8rPFUojWSoQPVvN5kIxfPSLyJfam-grpBCVN4G_Dwz2tjQCqaRLK_nxuRKu2-BPLnKp7-cGUpBI2urR8lXwfcw/s1600/dollar_toilet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="159" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiY0qI5PTgRk7sSVSc9qkfWTNarWXpmpHaHhaWLKET2mGORXj6DdaxfZ8rPFUojWSoQPVvN5kIxfPSLyJfam-grpBCVN4G_Dwz2tjQCqaRLK_nxuRKu2-BPLnKp7-cGUpBI2urR8lXwfcw/s200/dollar_toilet.jpg" width="200" /></a>The precious metals for example, have had a rather sharp fall last week and seem to be correcting still. However, to anyone thinking it's the end of the metals bull market, that's not true. Not yet at least. The major trend is still up. At a seminar I attended this evening, a professional trader who trades the silver markets as well, gave his opinion that prices were only correcting. Also, in the latest copy of the Edge, Jim Rogers comments that gold is long overdue for a correction. But we're still looking at a likely rise in prices in the coming decade. If we look at the charts for both gold and silver, I totally agree about the correction being long overdue. However, this correction may provide the ideal opportunity to finally get exposed to the precious metal.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Other ways would be to invest in either a precious metal ETF that tracks a basket of metals or to invest in precious metal-specific ETFs, like copper ETF, platinum ETF, or silver ETFs, or even the mining company ETFs, or the mining company shares directly. A final way to profit is to trade the metal futures itself.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Aside from precious metals, other commodities like rice, cotton, corn and any other agricultural produce will also rise if and when inflation kicks in. As such, one may profit by either looking into ETFs that track a basket of commodities and agricultural products, ETFs that are agricultural-specific, owning shares of agricultural companies or as mentioned above, trading agricultural futures. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Do note that like all investments, there are risks involved so I would ask you to seek more comprehensive advice from your brokers. Personally, I prefer investing in silver at UOB bank. However, on the downside, I do wish they sold physical silver instead of paper but I'll make do with what they have. It's just a nice feeling holding physical silver coins in your hand.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers and have a great night,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-434195541040477942011-01-20T14:00:00.001+08:002011-01-20T14:02:06.582+08:00Learning to Trade<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08EEhOuuxncYPGKg78oOhCjLsaNdz3rf__27wuu7_Z3F664oh0FWN1UW0FyOnlFpQ7ZhfYvL9ZmJE4OqIS1ebK_9aNxrF1ptA06eMyeCnyzHWfv_qclIXRDH3dSp_WQpQ2Fvsqzj-TaY/s1600/online-trading.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi08EEhOuuxncYPGKg78oOhCjLsaNdz3rf__27wuu7_Z3F664oh0FWN1UW0FyOnlFpQ7ZhfYvL9ZmJE4OqIS1ebK_9aNxrF1ptA06eMyeCnyzHWfv_qclIXRDH3dSp_WQpQ2Fvsqzj-TaY/s200/online-trading.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Slightly more than a week ago, I decided to try an experiment with myself. As I've never tried trading before, I wondered how I'd fare in the attempt so I decided to test out my ability. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This led me to scan a couple of stocks and "stock pick" so to speak, based on indicators. Each transaction is noted down in an excel sheet to allow as accurate a record as possible.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">As to the names of the stocks I'm too bashful to say at this time. I've "added" another 2 counters over the last two days though. Suffice to say that in a week plus, the portfolio seems to be performing quite well. Well, better than I expected anyway. Nonetheless, It's just a personal test, with nothing to boast about. A personal challenge. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">My aim in this private experiment is:</div><div style="text-align: justify;">1) To see how well indicators work and which indicators work for each stock (and for me)</div><div style="text-align: justify;">2) To experience what it's like to trade</div><div style="text-align: justify;">3) To learn what is important to do for each trade</div><div style="text-align: justify;">4) To build up some confidence in the trading area</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Like most experiments, there are limitations. First of all, there is no actual money involved so my emotions are held in check without much trouble. I realize this. That said, even if I do do really well, I'm not going to plunge into it and bet the house. I also realize it's a gradual process of being able to handle each trade with a sum of cash that isn't going to cause me to lose sleep over. Secondly, I'm also not going to be able to learn to handle loses, which is more important than handling winnings, so I've read in many articles, blog posts and books. This is why if and when I do decide to trade on a month to month basis, I'll start in small amounts to further build up my confidence and competence.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">I will be fine tuning this little experiment along the way the more I learn. So hopefully, in time, I'll be proficient at another way to generate income. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Wish me luck,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">P.S. By the way, any tips on how to start trading efficiently or trade in general would be most appreciated so feel free to leave as many comments as you please. Many thanks in advance. =)</div><div><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-26593624880686788042011-01-18T11:34:00.002+08:002011-01-18T11:35:17.820+08:00I Thinketh! - What is Rich?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivFQl-c9iRmTWsTtsu5BXUnqXH0FoQmtFLr1jTDMy3ZrhDlj2QS_WAMCK_t1jl5DR0TrSChV2SVVu19tltY9DexDEsLDjOab0plrvT0JfmkpPwpdFdv9FYHX02-IDbgUFRCSp2xLiTYBM/s1600/I+Thinketh.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivFQl-c9iRmTWsTtsu5BXUnqXH0FoQmtFLr1jTDMy3ZrhDlj2QS_WAMCK_t1jl5DR0TrSChV2SVVu19tltY9DexDEsLDjOab0plrvT0JfmkpPwpdFdv9FYHX02-IDbgUFRCSp2xLiTYBM/s200/I+Thinketh.jpg" width="164" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Poor and content is rich, and rich enough.</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>~ William Shakespeare</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><br />
</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Content makes poor men rich; discontent makes rich men poor.</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>~ Benjamin Franklin</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><br />
</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>There are people who have money and people who are rich.</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>~ Coco Chanel</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
<br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is rich. Sitting by the poolside, enjoying time to yourself, watching the children play with their blow-up ball splashing in the children's pool. No rush in getting to work, no pressure to meet a deadline. Nice clear sky in cool weather complementing the inviting waters. You just might jump in.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is rich. Book in hand relaxing at the neighbourhood cafe at the start of the day. People watching. Scurrying citizens on their way to work, all dressed in their Sunday best which has become an every day best instead. Sunday is the time to wear slacks.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is rich. Enjoying a game of tennis to work up a sweat before heading for a nice simple English breakfast at the nearby restaurant. Laughing, teasing, applauding with every ill-timed return and with every fluke. It's all in good fun. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is rich. Having a chat with a total stranger while in the queue in the supermarket. A curiosity question or remark started it all. Your conversation ends when your turn arrives but trade name cards to keep in contact. A year later, you two turn out to be good friends.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is rich. Taking a plane ride to visit the place of your choice. You spend a week, two, maybe more, experiencing new food, practices, even picking up a new language (vaguely). Exploring cultures and its history. Stepping into the unknown. Perhaps making a friend or two. Your world becomes much larger than you expected.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is rich. Volunteering to help out with some charity work. Peeking into the lives of total strangers. You see happy faces and troubled ones as well. You feel, you think, you realize life is precious and yet unfair. Perhaps you'll be a better person. Perhaps you'll see a troubled face smile.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is rich. Your children jump into bed waking you up with their giggles and glee. You chase them out of the room so you can continue with your dream of winning the lottery. You go back to bed and the dream changes to you with the winnings in your arms. Your children being the prize.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Where's the richness in money for money's sake?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-91922454368667963792011-01-18T01:54:00.001+08:002011-01-18T01:56:15.842+08:003 Tips to Prevent Your Car From Burning Excessive Fuel to Help You Save Money<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyhObtJB-xw5bj-_qH_ALOBlu_s99_G9Xqe1odnlNTY2a4-kuJcabFcbxfO5t7yrdE3OHb9e6Ju0MJOtGLczmws3RWKwtOVJc2VS3c2uHqSwb6QaTXcPItUfzOMOoQVeE34tKuI0_B79U/s1600/bad_credit_car_finance.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyhObtJB-xw5bj-_qH_ALOBlu_s99_G9Xqe1odnlNTY2a4-kuJcabFcbxfO5t7yrdE3OHb9e6Ju0MJOtGLczmws3RWKwtOVJc2VS3c2uHqSwb6QaTXcPItUfzOMOoQVeE34tKuI0_B79U/s200/bad_credit_car_finance.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Car sickness is the feeling you get when the monthly payment is due.</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>~ Author unknown</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i></i>Owning a car in Singapore is expensive as it is without adding to the cost unnecessarily. Though I do not have a car of my own and don't plan on getting one any time soon, here are three tips which I found that could help all car owners save on these unnecessary expenses.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Tip 1: Follow the Trucks</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">In traffic jams, stick with the trucks, which tend to roll along at the same pace. It takes more fuel to get a vehicle moving than it does to keep it moving. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Tip 2: Check Your Air Filter</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Hold your air filter up to the sun. If no light passes through, it's time to change it to a new one. Clogged filters prevents the right amount of air from entering the engine. This results in more petrol being burnt to achieve the same amount of power to propel the vehicle a certain distance.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Tip 3: Get the Right Tyres and Mind the Rims</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Big tyres with fancy sports rims may look cool, but create more rolling resistance and weigh more thereby increasing the amount of petrol used.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Happy rolling everyone,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K<br />
<br />
<div></div></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-84493694044291348462011-01-17T23:59:00.002+08:002011-01-18T10:52:32.031+08:00OSIM Making a Double Top or Ascending Triangle?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgroIa0yJ94UAYlT1EBI_nmfBIKlAK_Q5Afsa6FDBn9pSQJdGRgy2bN_WOu3zBP3Sz3kqIFHej0_lMkrXXQqDvOOObSTnlO7lMLExfY5LoNxeYQSLPT0NCkUMAQjObV_nT21AGW1NiYxi8/s1600/OSIM_Main.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="86" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgroIa0yJ94UAYlT1EBI_nmfBIKlAK_Q5Afsa6FDBn9pSQJdGRgy2bN_WOu3zBP3Sz3kqIFHej0_lMkrXXQqDvOOObSTnlO7lMLExfY5LoNxeYQSLPT0NCkUMAQjObV_nT21AGW1NiYxi8/s200/OSIM_Main.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In my previous post on OSIM, I pointed out that "<i>In the near term, stock price should continue to trend higher. But with decreasing volume, there may be a correction at hand.</i>" Refer to <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2010/12/osim-dual-listing-plans-causes-price-to.html">Will OSIM Dual Listing Plans Cause Price to Continue Rising?</a>. Sure enough, prices rose for another three days before undergoing the anticipated correction as we can see from the chart below where I indicated when I made that statement with the blue arrow.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e6B9I_Vm7RmX2STSFGJ9vO5FjO6JtqIS-Xy7oCia5iWSomUqoDPBUXL1X7Vg0gKDmzv8PnORkmqDR4KcaWdsBASeOj45iUDhBtdYTphiuJ-wAQu-7qk4cVuuOKXwG64YHkXtVNE4-Rs/s1600/OSIM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2e6B9I_Vm7RmX2STSFGJ9vO5FjO6JtqIS-Xy7oCia5iWSomUqoDPBUXL1X7Vg0gKDmzv8PnORkmqDR4KcaWdsBASeOj45iUDhBtdYTphiuJ-wAQu-7qk4cVuuOKXwG64YHkXtVNE4-Rs/s320/OSIM.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">Currently price looks to be rolling over and forming either one of two formations - a double top or an ascending triangle.<br />
<br />
To note, volume is still lower than compared to the previous time it reached resistance. This in no way helps bouy prices up to prevent the double top breaking down and sending prices lower from becoming a reality. Furthermore, from the MACD and Stochastics, prices may head lower in the short term. We will only know if the ill-result of the double top formation materializes should prices break below the neckline at $1.47. If so, prices are expected to drop further. However, the 50 day moving average which stands at ~$1.53 should provide some support which I expect prices to dip to judging from price behaviour.<br />
<br />
That said, there seems to be some support at $1.62 as well as the 14dma (albeit looking weak). If this holds, we could see the formation of an ascending triangle instead. However, price movement today managed to push through this support to $1.60 before closing three cents higher to $1.63. This gives me mixed feelings at present. The next couple of days should give a clearer picture. If the ascending triangle pattern does hold, then a breakout would probably see prices head higher. This could occur as the market sentiment still remains bullish.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Not vested,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-53676232806869670202011-01-17T11:56:00.000+08:002013-09-24T04:51:21.379+08:00BreadTalk Update<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
As expected, BreadTalk has broke through its resistance at $0.65 and out of its ascending triangle formation albeit sooner than anticipated (refer to <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2011/01/breadtalk-challenging-resistance.html">BreadTalk Challenging Resistance</a> and the chart below). </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7i2o4afq_kCoowKXu-4qeYWKFsKmOXpfcXDyUyt_x86FQtdUSvz6OnfziJOTPr3YYQGj028TFAVhPNYd6iIwhl26BT6kdbVidORCbVW_5dEhEufBHrr4pkuH-ZpHNjxaIlps7Baprzs4/s1600/Breadtalk+overview.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7i2o4afq_kCoowKXu-4qeYWKFsKmOXpfcXDyUyt_x86FQtdUSvz6OnfziJOTPr3YYQGj028TFAVhPNYd6iIwhl26BT6kdbVidORCbVW_5dEhEufBHrr4pkuH-ZpHNjxaIlps7Baprzs4/s320/Breadtalk+overview.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
This breakout has driven prices up. Prices are currently challenging the next resistance at $0.70 (refer to the chart below). When prices reached $0.70 previously, the 5-for-1 bonus shares issue caused prices to drop to $0.49 - an over-reaction by the market. Anyone who was braved enough then would have made a handsome profit by now. Also, anyone who entered at the 14 day moving average like I pointed out as a good entry point, would be sitting on some delightful paper profits now as well. Nonetheless, is there still room for the stock price to move up?</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7i2o4afq_kCoowKXu-4qeYWKFsKmOXpfcXDyUyt_x86FQtdUSvz6OnfziJOTPr3YYQGj028TFAVhPNYd6iIwhl26BT6kdbVidORCbVW_5dEhEufBHrr4pkuH-ZpHNjxaIlps7Baprzs4/s1600/Breadtalk+overview.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheXV0K-dXu4F7q9i5pZHn4XGVlGiZx6HYFJcw58uqpjHgyCcaIOnh3zVQd4tCvmc-IkiGB5I5CN6NwfiDs4CREyiuBIG8-3-x1K3Fq2KyldeLBUCvBqT6ZL_5H9g6d6N7weNeoIR5afGQ/s1600/Breadtalk+current+resistance.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheXV0K-dXu4F7q9i5pZHn4XGVlGiZx6HYFJcw58uqpjHgyCcaIOnh3zVQd4tCvmc-IkiGB5I5CN6NwfiDs4CREyiuBIG8-3-x1K3Fq2KyldeLBUCvBqT6ZL_5H9g6d6N7weNeoIR5afGQ/s320/Breadtalk+current+resistance.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Well once again, we can see another ascending triangle formation. Any breakout would result most probably in another spurt. As mentioned in my last post on BreadTalk, volume is still very low. Previously I debated this low volume as either a weak push up or perhaps a lack of sellers as they hold the belief that the stock is more valuable than current prices. With the price breaking out of its formation and resistance, and with prices still continuing to slowly creep upwards, this is leading me to believe the latter. With this reasoning, I believe it is still possible for prices to climb further. From the chart below, we can see that prices have hovered at resistance for the last four days. However, will it continue to move higher just yet?</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7nRWBocG1myhvx2v_42Y-Wr7vxfD02_-7yslBiEyfRaDPfVvRLFdVcsnGOpH0wC3qmgBv_jHvXyeyWKSCTXYqe3U2qu6jgh_5jN2lixMmXjthDJlDj-il_9FIUINwBa9qIFu7yvbbxFQ/s1600/Breadtalk+indicators.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7nRWBocG1myhvx2v_42Y-Wr7vxfD02_-7yslBiEyfRaDPfVvRLFdVcsnGOpH0wC3qmgBv_jHvXyeyWKSCTXYqe3U2qu6jgh_5jN2lixMmXjthDJlDj-il_9FIUINwBa9qIFu7yvbbxFQ/s320/Breadtalk+indicators.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
Turning to the indicators for a clue, RSI shows BreadTalk stocks are pretty overbought at the moment while MFI and OBV suggests steady accumulation has been ongoing. Stochastics and MACD however, hint that some selling may be starting despite ADX indicating that the trend is currently relatively strong. Furthermore, ADX DI+ has dipped below ADX 14d supporting the view that selling may be occurring behind the scenes. Immediate support lies at $0.675. Next support lies at $0.66. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
My take: Prices looks likely to hover between immediate support and resistance for the next couple of days since profit taking may be taking place while waiting for the 14dma to catch up. The 14dma also provides some support should prices dip below $0.675. That said, I expect prices to break through the $0.70 and head higher thereafter. When this will happen is anyone's guess. My guess is that it will happen by the end of the month. Only time will tell if I'm right. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
Good luck everyone.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
Vested,</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
~K</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
</div>
Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-56339965561431605132011-01-14T12:14:00.009+08:002011-01-14T12:49:39.499+08:00Robin Griffiths: What's Keeping the U.S. Market Afloat and Other Issues<div style="text-align: justify;">To continue from the last post, here's an earlier interview (dated Sept '10) before the broadcast at King World News that I posted earlier. Though this is 4 months delayed news, you can still learn quite a bit from Robins Griffith.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">In it, Robin Griffiths touches on several issues. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>On the Best Sept and What's Keeping the U.S. Equity Market Afloat</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">00:30 : One of the things keeping markets afloat "is something called Permanent Open Market Operation ... (POMO) ... what happens is the Fed buys treasuries off the banks pushing the money into the banks. The bank pushes the money into the market. They do about US$6billion a day when they do this."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">00:50 : "That amount of money turns the algorithms up. Then all the algorithmic trading hits the market. Real life human investment managers are not doing this buying. They know that after the rally that we've had, we're back to where we were first in 1998."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-weight: normal;"><br />
</span></b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">01:07 : "Equities are for losers and if you're priced in dollars, you're down 30% over that period." </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">01:12 : "So real life equity market [investors] still don't want to buy the S&P. Is still being affectively goosed up by what we used to call <u>the Plunge Protection Team</u>. Well they can keep doing this for a bit longer but I<u>'d only be completely wrong if they do it so much that they take out the April high. According to me, that April high will not break and we are going to inevitably go down.</u>"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>The U.S. Economy, the Recession and What's In Store</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">01:40 : "Last week we heard the president say in clear words that although we had ... an economic institution saying the recession was over 9 months ago he accepted that for many Americans the recession is still an ongoing reality. And secondly all of those Keynesian stimulus didn't work. We're changing the entire game plan and <u>what's going to happen is the Fed is going to be printing money and pumping it into the economy to try and let it down slowly</u>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>On Bonds and Bubbles</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">02:12 : On 30yr bonds, "the yield is going to go down. Now if you buy the 30yr treasury bonds as the yield goes down, you make money."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">02:23 : "There's an old saying that goes don't fight the Fed. Well now the Fed is going to guarantee that your bonds go up."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">02:42: "They've backed up. They had to back up. If you missed when the yield was approaching 4%, you aren't going to double your money as it approaches 2%. But even now <u>you should be buying bonds and not equities</u>. And it's not a bubble."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">02:57 : "It will be a bubble when your viewers all write in and say we've all got bonds what do we do now?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">03:03 : "And the bubbles never burst when wise heads in media tell you its a bubble that's going to burst. It burst when they've given up on that and tell you ah this time it's different. So you should in fact be in bonds and not in Western equities."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>On the Bovespa and Emerging Markets</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">03:29 : "These are the markets you should have been in. Where the American market has gone virtually nowhere for the last decade, the [Brazilian] Bovespa has been up 1000%."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">03:37 : "Including China and India ... these are where you should be putting your money."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">03:50 : "This is the real deal where people have been working hard to take themselves out of poverty, succeeding, and we can back them and we can invest in them. These are equity markets that are real bull markets and that are making all time highs where the ... Western markets aren't going to do that."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">04:13: "The Bovespa "is rising at a rate of a 1000% per decade."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Check out the video below for the complete interview, most of which I've already transcribed here. =)</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><br />
<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" height="380" id="cnbcplayer" width="400"></p><p><param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"/></p><p><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/></p><p><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/></p><p><param name="quality" value="best"/></p><p><param name="scale" value="noscale" /></p><p><param name="wmode" value="transparent"/></p><p><param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"/></p><p><param name="salign" value="lt"/></p><p><param name="movie" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1601032652/code/cnbcplayershare"/></p><p><embed name="cnbcplayer" PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" height="380" width="400" quality="best" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" salign="lt" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1601032652/code/cnbcplayershare" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" /></p><p></object><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">That said, this is the current chart of the S&P500:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDF_B7jEM1HFYtfF74t9fAeinUHLjKKOi5LZD6CeauiKV1y1jN2CCZZKQ9GK56j1Id-eH8qrFkBhvHc-lIZapidX638BImttA3Qs6jz-xuybB1ql1IhkWVZK6AG8KQLElTiBXn65TTYnM/s1600/S%2526P500.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDF_B7jEM1HFYtfF74t9fAeinUHLjKKOi5LZD6CeauiKV1y1jN2CCZZKQ9GK56j1Id-eH8qrFkBhvHc-lIZapidX638BImttA3Qs6jz-xuybB1ql1IhkWVZK6AG8KQLElTiBXn65TTYnM/s320/S%2526P500.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">I've marked the resistance back in April'10 and we can clearly see that stock prices have gone way beyond that. So was Mr. Griffiths "completely wrong" as he put it in his interview?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">That remains to be seen. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">I'm of the opinion that although he may have been wrong in his prediction about the stock market not breaking its April high, if his explanation on why the equity market is propped up is correct and with all the printing of currency, then this still is bad news for the future with the debasement of purchasing power. And to me, the way to protect that it is in physical assets. However, I'm not suggesting you to go all in into physical assets -- no no -- as the future is so unpredictable and we can never be certain who is right and who isn't until the event is over. However, it is recommended that one has about 5 - 10% of his/her portfolio in precious metals and to rebalance every yearly or two. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Having said that, this video below shows that some of the most well-renowned investors are still piling into gold - Jim Rogers being the most famous. It also explains why gold is still a viable investment asset and why it is still demanded in today's society. As <i>Gold Core Limited</i> is a company, they may have a bias to promote the metal. As such, it is best viewed with an open mind and like attempting a jigsaw puzzle, you have to piece the different parts together to make your own conclusion.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Check it out:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><iframe frameborder="0" height="380" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/-HaqwFJj4ZY?fs=1" width="400"></iframe><br />
<br />
<br />
Cheers,<br />
~K<br />
<br />
<div></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-1126773498506463032011-01-14T01:23:00.014+08:002011-01-14T10:51:56.052+08:00Robin Griffiths on U.S. Dollar Printing, Commodities, Gold, Silver and His 2011 Outlook<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpVnBi7URd4o-LKJZaKSqbeLEe1vJ5orxUttGhAxIaJCV7boJSDK40svwmY0bAygNx7nTmk7DL80tgH-C_qOvVim1rPeNNlMrt-_ef2xtDYWSqtxkaGgvqTkJWDfO1XHxdvQOZZtXa3O8/s1600/speaker_robin-griffith.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpVnBi7URd4o-LKJZaKSqbeLEe1vJ5orxUttGhAxIaJCV7boJSDK40svwmY0bAygNx7nTmk7DL80tgH-C_qOvVim1rPeNNlMrt-_ef2xtDYWSqtxkaGgvqTkJWDfO1XHxdvQOZZtXa3O8/s1600/speaker_robin-griffith.jpg" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Quote of the Week:</b><br />
<i>"The downward trend in the dollar is awesomely powerful. It's vital to get yourself out of the dollar long-term on any significant rally. Continuing to own a currency that is going to be printed virtually into oblivion ... is crazy."</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><br />
</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>"I think not owning gold is a form of insanity, it may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies, which might need medical attention."</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>~ Robin Griffiths</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Background:</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Robin Griffiths is Cazanove Capital Management Private Wealth's Technical Strategist. He has 44 years of investment experience and is considered one of the top strategists in the world. Cazenove as a group now manages <span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Cambria; font-size: 16px;">£</span>15 billion on behalf of their client base and is one of the oldest and most respected names in the financial community, tracing its origins back to the 17th century. Robin developed his own system, analyzing stocks and market trends. Robin is followed globally because of his groundbreaking work on world stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here's the complete video to hear his take on the dollar printing and his view on the highs commodities have been making recently that led to the quotes above.</div><br />
<object classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" height="380" id="cnbcplayer" width="400"></p><p><param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"/></p><p><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/></p><p><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/></p><p><param name="quality" value="best"/></p><p><param name="scale" value="noscale" /></p><p><param name="wmode" value="transparent"/></p><p><param name="bgcolor" value="#000000"/></p><p><param name="salign" value="lt"/></p><p><param name="movie" value="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1733642049/code/cnbcplayershare"/></p><p><embed name="cnbcplayer" PLUGINSPAGE="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" bgcolor="#000000" height="380" width="400" quality="best" wmode="transparent" scale="noscale" salign="lt" src="http://plus.cnbc.com/rssvideosearch/action/player/id/1733642049/code/cnbcplayershare" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" /></p><p></object><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">In another interview too, Mr. Griffiths was extremely bearish on the outlook of 2011.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Here's the article:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Cazenove's Robin Griffiths: The October Dip Will Be Nothing Compared To The 2011 Crash</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Source: The Business Insider -- <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cazenovths-robin-griffiths-bearish-2010-10">Click here for link</a></i><br />
<i>Date: Oct 2010</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><br />
</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cazenova Capital Management's Robin Griffith sounded incredibly bearish on a radio interview with King World News. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">He even thinks the September Effect will be validated -- because the real negative historical trend lasts from mid-September to mid-October.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The collapse in the next few weeks will be similar to the collapse from April to July, Griffith says, putting his target for the S&P500 at 940.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you think that's low, wait till the Alt-A mortgage rate reset in March. "The dip this year is modest. The dip that occurs next year is the one that risks taking major indices right back to where they were in March '09," Griffith says.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Cazenove strategist has a bearish election prediction too. The market-friendly Republicans will win, but the loss will be so "catastrophic" for the Democrats, it will make Obama an immediate lame duck, hurting the economy.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Oh yeah, and he thinks the plunge protection team was the only thing keeping the rally going in September. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b>Broadcast at King World News</b></div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><b><br />
</b></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Related to the article above, listen to this <a href="http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/2_Robin_Griffiths.html">broadcast of his interview at King World News</a>, dated 02nd Oct 2010, for the complete interview.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">The line that caught my ears, "Silver might even be a 10-bagger from here." aka ~$200 per ounce. </div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Current price/oz: US$29.25.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">UOB current price/oz: S$37.37</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Although that may be an exaggerated amount, even a 5-, 4-, or 3-bagger would be a huge delight.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">Question of the Day: What are you waiting for?</div><div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><br />
</div></div></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Cheers,<br />
~K<br />
<br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-45364283179084478212011-01-13T13:56:00.014+08:002011-01-13T14:18:02.198+08:007 Reasons to Expect a Bear Market in 2011<div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpqK5_hMStl8H3H7YIDTwatkbhxqG6T9NS09bMqRBQFpLNQqXucZxxu5xadod3IoQZSI_7B0pCbDFcm7dYYyMmXvz_LkC5WGibMDADqpcrllcvMMRhQA-4m3H62qq6BwNZAYst3TuUFJY/s1600/bear.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpqK5_hMStl8H3H7YIDTwatkbhxqG6T9NS09bMqRBQFpLNQqXucZxxu5xadod3IoQZSI_7B0pCbDFcm7dYYyMmXvz_LkC5WGibMDADqpcrllcvMMRhQA-4m3H62qq6BwNZAYst3TuUFJY/s200/bear.jpg" width="155" /></a><span style="font-weight: normal;">While it seems that a lot of analysts and people are bullish about the new year, here's an article that states the contrary. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;">Cheers,</span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;">~K</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"></span><em style="font-style: italic; font-weight: normal;">Taken from an article written by <a href="http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-contrarian-viewpoint-42187">Mr. Claus Vogt of Money and Markets, entitled "The Contrarian View"</a></em></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b><br />
<b>7 Reasons to Expect a Bear Market in 2011</b></div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">1) The stock market is highly overvalued. It follows then that stock investments are nearly guaranteed to deliver poor, long-term returns.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">2) T</span>he rally since August 2010 isn’t based on sound and sustainable economic factors, but on unsound and fragile faith in the Fed’s ability to inflate asset prices.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">3) Longer term interest rates have risen considerably since the Fed’s first announcement of QE2. In the past, bull markets were usually on borrowed time during a rising yield environment — even when fundamentals were much sounder than today.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></div><div style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">4) Stocks are extremely overbought when momentum indicators and the number of stocks reaching new 52-week highs stay below their cyclical highs, thereby not confirming the current run up.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">5) There is a debt crisis brewing, not just in Europe, but also in Japan and the U.S. The U.S. municipal bond market is already under pressure.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">6) The financial sector’s problems have not been solved, but only papered over with money printing and a suspension of mark-to-market (fair-value) disclosure.</div><div style="margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: justify;">7) In China a huge bubble economy has developed. Since Beijing has already implemented a turn in monetary policy, this bubble is prone to pop in 2011, posing a major threat for a still very fragile global economy.</div><div style="color: #444444; font-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-12146693313422187302011-01-13T13:31:00.009+08:002011-01-13T13:44:32.092+08:003 Signs the U.S. Market is Approaching Danger Zone<div style="text-align: justify;">A recent article by Claus Vogt of <i>Money and Markets </i>highlights three danger signs that a crash in the U.S. market may be approaching. I'll summarize below.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Danger Sign 1:</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>A Major New Debt Crisis Striking Thousands of Local Governments Throughout the United States</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">To highlight a section from the article, Mr. V states that,</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">"In prior debt crises, a major central government or bank came to the rescue. This time:</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;">The Federal Reserve has neither the authority nor the will to come to the rescue; and</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The U.S. Congress is even less inclined to open the Pandora's box that a city or state bailout would involve.</li>
</ul><div style="text-align: justify;">... This one is striking at the very heart of the U.S. economy!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Result: <i>A big threat to the U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter AND to the U.S. credit markets at the same time</i>."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Danger Sign 2:</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>A Major Divergence in the Stock Market</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A key indicator pointed out is "<i><u>the number of stocks hitting 52-week highs</u></i>.</div><ul><li style="text-align: justify;"><b>During a healthy, durable bull market</b>, as the major indices move to new highs, there should be an increase in the number of stocks making new highs, as growing number of issues participate. And for the rally to continue, stocks must repeatedly hit new cyclical highs. But ... </li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><b>At the tail end of the bull market</b>, this picture starts to change. The breadth of the move weakens. More and more stocks enter topping formations or start to roll over. And the number of stocks making 52-week highs levels off or actually declines.</li>
</ul><div><div style="text-align: justify;">...Although the broad indices are still making new highs, fewer stocks are doing so. In other words...</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>The whole rally depends on a shrinking number of stocks!"</i></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">The "negative divergence" is obvious from the evidence presented in the two charts below:</div></div><div><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAgElxQywPmaPUdNIb-gbWaPeTEfKS0vkGmvaJneeGzKc5wrDDz39wui36pTRTCKMUP247969UOy-ya1krFjGrN9S4H6VoLk13Lrbu_SjfDgj1EYLgX3BKUP9-ZZGvbqbpikYznv6l-YY/s1600/chart1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAgElxQywPmaPUdNIb-gbWaPeTEfKS0vkGmvaJneeGzKc5wrDDz39wui36pTRTCKMUP247969UOy-ya1krFjGrN9S4H6VoLk13Lrbu_SjfDgj1EYLgX3BKUP9-ZZGvbqbpikYznv6l-YY/s320/chart1.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuG6FMPh1Shj6GGiAGZB8UnCXN2mIPwm0rmj97qGbZ308bwZFdjEbU0B3zpZskNSiCw4KzbPrM4ZCchf59ryqqsHxtiZP7ZXR6Kle4fuhusj1npYzCg-AntvL7ZvMmSRe2DuzwMkf3Hsg/s1600/chart2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="119" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuG6FMPh1Shj6GGiAGZB8UnCXN2mIPwm0rmj97qGbZ308bwZFdjEbU0B3zpZskNSiCw4KzbPrM4ZCchf59ryqqsHxtiZP7ZXR6Kle4fuhusj1npYzCg-AntvL7ZvMmSRe2DuzwMkf3Hsg/s320/chart2.gif" width="320" /></a></div><div><br />
</div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">To quote, "<i>As you can see the current move to new index highs is not confirmed by the number of 52-week highs</i>...</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">The indicator's high for the current cycle was way back in April 2010. So the market is actually showing multiple divergences: <i>A succession of higher highs in the index and ... at the same time ... a succession of lower highs in this indicator..</i>.</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">...the number of 52-week highs is a time honoured indicator. Historically, it has given important warning signs well before a major bear market commenced. Just look at 2007 and you'll see an example of a negative divergence similar to the one we're experiencing now!" </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Danger Sign 3:</b></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Great Overvaluation</b></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b><br />
</b></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">This line says it all. </div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><br />
</i></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>"The U.S. stock market is severely overvalued ... possibly by 50% or more!"</i></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i><br />
</i></div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">Put the three signs together and it's wise to invest with caution in the year ahead. What's that latin saying again? Oh yes...<br />
<br />
<i>Caveat Emptor</i>,</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div><div style="text-align: justify;">P.S. If you're interested in the complete article, it can be found <a href="http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/3-looming-danger-signs-2-amazing-opportunities-42293?FIELD9=5">here</a>.</div></div><div><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-27198289585171692142011-01-13T11:31:00.021+08:002011-01-13T14:00:40.466+08:00Facebook's Expected IPO<div style="text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQeOB_TGXs2CZpBo9aUn6YSWaot_60lfek-T7KB1wQH_l_GGg-tCuU_ik0Zal3CH0KO4zSnUZJsJIfkqsnLf1oaUNKptxD3NefVUs6PQSAPbQzdT-A2aRWIPIVQo5Cqj_Zy1mHrSuCIkQ/s1600/2009-03-25-facebook_02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQeOB_TGXs2CZpBo9aUn6YSWaot_60lfek-T7KB1wQH_l_GGg-tCuU_ik0Zal3CH0KO4zSnUZJsJIfkqsnLf1oaUNKptxD3NefVUs6PQSAPbQzdT-A2aRWIPIVQo5Cqj_Zy1mHrSuCIkQ/s200/2009-03-25-facebook_02.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>By now I'm sure most of us have heard about the expected IPO of <i>Facebook</i> by latest 2012. I too was interested as my opinion is that <i>Facebook</i> is probably going to be to social networking sites what <i>Google</i> is to search engines. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Why do I think so? Because firstly, I never liked social networking sites but for some reason I sold out and am now on <i>Facebook</i> as well. It's like back in the days of <i>Altavista</i> and <i>Lycos</i> search engines. I used to keep using <i>Altavista</i> despite <i>Google</i>'s appearance. And for some reason I just decided to switch over. <i>Google</i> even became a word as in "Don't know the answer? Try googling it." And now, <i>Facebook </i>seems to be used in that context too. "Oh yeah I uploaded my pics. You can facebook 'em if you wanna take a look." or "Yeah, I'll be facebooking later. I'll add you then." That's a second sign of the importance this social networking site is becoming.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">If I had known about investing back then in the days of multiple search engines, that would have been a big signal to invest my money in <i>Google</i>. That said, I think <i>Facebook</i> may grow like <i>Google</i> eventually for the reasons above. However, would the IPO price be a good price to buy in? For that I like to refer you to this article below written by Ed Pawalec of the <i>Tycoon Report </i>which I found most informative.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Enjoy!</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><b>Another Brick in the Wall: Fool's Gold or Value Play?</b></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><i>by Ed Pawalec</i><br />
<br />
News of Goldman Sach's investment in Facebook has been all over the news, so I thought I would play with the numbers a little to see if an impending IPO would end up being a scam or a value play when the company does go public.<br />
<br />
The exact financials are vague at best at this point, and can only be guessed at by reports in the financial press, but we can have some fun with this anyway.<br />
<br />
The value of the company according to a variety of reports is in the $50 billion range, which some have said is ridiculous. In fact, <i>The Wall Street Journal</i> quoted one former Goldman partner who was offered a piece of the action as saying, "Google's trading at 7 times sales. I'm not going to buy Facebook at 25 to 50 times." Interesting.<br />
<br />
The valuation is based on the portion of the company to be purchased in a joint investment by Goldman Sachs ($450 million) and Digital Sky ($50 million) for $500 million. However, Goldman is also reported to have been putting together an additional $1.5 billion through a Partner Private Opportunity Fund, so how they come up with $50 billion is a little unclear. Nevertheless, I'll go with the $50 billion number.<br />
<br />
Now, Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook's founder and CEO) is trying <i><u>not</u><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"> to go public, which requires these investments to be bundled into Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) so as not to go a foul of the SEC's 500 investor rule. Essentially, this requires any company that has 500 or more shareholders and $10 million in assets to file their financials with SEC, thus making it public information. This rule is rumoured to have been the motivation for Google to go public in 2004. If you have to report publicly anyway, why not do an IPO?</span></i><br />
<br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">According to the rule, a company that exceeds that threshold must begin reporting within 120 days of the close of the fiscal year in which it reaches 500 shareholders. Since the current offering from Goldman, which could put Facebook over the 500 shareholder mark, is occurring in 2011, and Facebook's fiscal year ends on December 31, the expectation is for an IPO no later than April of 2012.</span></i><br />
<br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">This might be avoided if the SEC accepts Goldman's SPV as a single investor. The SPV is, in its simplest terms, a group of investors clumped together as a single entity, which then invests in Facebook and is counted as only one investor. We will see how that works out. </span></i><br />
<br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;">Enough with the background, lets jump into the numbers.</span></i><br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><br />
</span></i><br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-style: normal;"><b>Who says a dollar isn't worth what it used to be?</b></span></i><br />
<br />
For 2009, Facebook is said to have earned $200 million on revenues of $777 million -- a tidy 25% margin. For the first 9 months of 2010, reports are that the company is up $355 million on revenues of $1.2 billion -- an even better 29.5% margin. For all of 2010, estimates are for $500 million in earnings, which would suggest revenues of $1.6 billion.<br />
<br />
Based on a $50 billion estimated market capitalization, that puts a PE ratio of 100 on Facebook. Seems a little rich by most standards. That being said, stocks frequently trade based on how fast they can grow their earnings and, assuming we can take the $500 million expected for 2010 at face value, Facebook grew earnings at 150% year over year. Maybe 100 times isn't too ridiculous if you make the assumption that they can maintain that growth rate.<br />
<br />
Internet World Stats numbers Facebook subscribers at 517 million plus (as of Aug 30, 2010) compared to recent estimates of 600 million. I have to admit, either number is impressive. But, if you think about it: $500 million net income divided by 600 million subscribers means that each subscriber is worth $.83 to Mark Zuckerberg and his investors -- just under a buck per year.<br />
<br />
Zillions of man hours wasted on Facebook each year so some 26 year old nerd from Harvard can make $.83 on each user.<br />
<br />
Think about that.<br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>Critical Mass</b><br />
<br />
But you have to give the guy credit for finding 600 million people he could squeeze $.83 out of.<br />
<br />
Hold on a minute! How many people are on the planet?<br />
<br />
Well, recent estimates are in the neighbourhood of 6.8 billion. By 2020 there will be about 7.7 billion people, and most of these would need to be worth at least $.83 for Facebook to be fairly valued at $50 billion today. But you can't have Facebook without the internet, and not everybody in the world is wired ... at least not yet.<br />
<br />
Unsurprisingly, the growth in the number of internet users has dropped considerably over the years ...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix30s5s6F5SZVQccVe0nekewnEiHWNYjrcJ03LhvoIjEfgWXRTg9mDhPUx67Kw90zWTmNTz4aa4LgpNnOntKybNkcc8034kzT_ax17v1zqrWpLC3yZvgt1NBqNcv_wHK9p9HU6jFhTMGU/s1600/01102011_01-10-11_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="191" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix30s5s6F5SZVQccVe0nekewnEiHWNYjrcJ03LhvoIjEfgWXRTg9mDhPUx67Kw90zWTmNTz4aa4LgpNnOntKybNkcc8034kzT_ax17v1zqrWpLC3yZvgt1NBqNcv_wHK9p9HU6jFhTMGU/s320/01102011_01-10-11_1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">With the number of users doubling every year during the heyday in the late 1990's, things had to cool down. Over the last five years, growth has steadied to a strong 13-15% annual rate. Again, according to World Internet Stats, nearly 2 billion people have internet access. Almost 29% of the world is wired for the web and 26% of them use Facebook, each worth $.83. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Now if internet access continues to grow at a 13% rate for the foreseeable future, sometime during 2021 every person on earth will be connected to the web. Yes, you will be able to check your Facebook page from anyplace in sub Saharan Africa, as long as there are people, by 2021 ... maybe not. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Since Facebook is just about 7 years old, its growth rate has been exponential. For argument's sake, however, let's just say that it can grow subscribers at a 25% annual rate. By early 2023, everyone on earth, who has already had the internet for two years, will now be available for friending on Facebook. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">While this is clearly something to look forward to, stay with me -- I do have a point. In this outlandish scenario, with the world population valued at $.83 a head, and if Facebook kicks all of its earnings back shareholders, it becomes a perpetuity. This means that the present value of the company can be determined simply by choosing a discount rate. Since we are talking about just over 10 years, the approximate 3.4% rate on the ten year note is as good as any. And the calculation goes:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">(World Population in 2021 x $.83) / 3.4% =</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">(7,900,000,000 x .83) / .034 = $192.85 Billion</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Before you deem this exercise silly, think about a more feasible scenario:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">If by 2021, half the world is wired and half of them use Facebook, using this same crude calculation the numbers come to $48 billion, which happens to be darn close to the $50 billion number being bandied about these days. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The point here is that Facebook is a unique company in that it actually has the potential to reach the entirety of the internet capable world and therefore, to its detriment, it does have a maximum value that can be calculated. I realize that the company could increase its per subscriber value and that the discount is somewhat arbitrary, but I found it interesting how doing some back of the cocktail napkin math came so close to the value ascribed by the pundits and analysts. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">In any event, at least now you have some idea what it would take to make this company worth $50 billion today.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div></div><div></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-89955691570497815802011-01-11T12:56:00.002+08:002011-01-11T13:15:05.940+08:00Starhub: Opportunity to Buy In May Be Near at Hand<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxgx_nGQkmOiNyh4ZdEfvmZGrNEGuROVZlsehPm7bBs6J2kY7KGLdx9WYmOz1XIt1EP-4YmE2e6Oxdg3-D6Y2WGmsiX8w4cx7PNNyH9WDNjYH_VF50tokPjNqF6vGPRLk6LG0aHIwe97Q/s1600/starhub_green.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxgx_nGQkmOiNyh4ZdEfvmZGrNEGuROVZlsehPm7bBs6J2kY7KGLdx9WYmOz1XIt1EP-4YmE2e6Oxdg3-D6Y2WGmsiX8w4cx7PNNyH9WDNjYH_VF50tokPjNqF6vGPRLk6LG0aHIwe97Q/s1600/starhub_green.gif" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In my last post on Starhub, (refer to <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2010/12/starhub-breakout-in-making.html">Starhub Breakout in the Making?</a>), I mentioned then that the opportunity to buy into the stock may have arrived but a dip to $2.63 may find it back in the downtrend channel. Prices did drop back and no confirmation of a breakout resulted, with prices dipping even lower currently to $2.57. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">That said, I also noted that the 100 day moving average has been providing strong support allowing prices to bounce up on the 21st of Dec to attempt breaking out of its downtrending channel. This didn't occur unfortunately. However, if we look at the chart, the opportunity may be close by. </div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDzqJQJ-kxY_kSQySd9R9OqqL0uQiPctWEKK4Dhvcxwrr7bOgJcLa5O_RSu07ISHHeygKrWG4BLblTlv2u4dNp1zbxrmgqZbIbNbAEtRP2tE9kmOWMxKSR5eEZEUIOEjZbnJdtDTL7vA8/s1600/Starhub+indicators.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDzqJQJ-kxY_kSQySd9R9OqqL0uQiPctWEKK4Dhvcxwrr7bOgJcLa5O_RSu07ISHHeygKrWG4BLblTlv2u4dNp1zbxrmgqZbIbNbAEtRP2tE9kmOWMxKSR5eEZEUIOEjZbnJdtDTL7vA8/s320/Starhub+indicators.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">The 100dma has met the upper regions of the downtrend and may provide that extra push to prevent price from falling further. That said, indicators don't show any evidence that prices will head higher any time soon. Volume too, is much lower than the previous selloff on the 17th of Dec that resulted in the ugly black candle hinting at the probable lack of sellers. As such, we may find prices hovering around this region, bouncing from its 100dma support to its resistance at $2.65 before attempting a breakout. In other words, a triangle may result. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">As an income stock, with a dividend yield of 7.4% and a p/e of 13.8, Starhub is rather attractive as compared to its peers. However, maintaining its 20 cent/share dividend remains something of a concern to analysts.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Vested,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-44686105857700981472011-01-11T12:19:00.003+08:002011-01-11T12:23:48.637+08:00Comfort Cab Speeding Up Too Fast?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVyPyYj4mflQBZMkQFoFr43-5KPSyvA49I6GMdf4IbhDVONEvm-TyQ20QPEfYa2Q6I90a7Ebg69P7gyhKLHrkpgiO80rR2IpEPckX3us5637Mf3FiEscGO9KIFT4F8tlyvftXoOKSDkYA/s1600/Singapore-Comfort--CityCab-taxis.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVyPyYj4mflQBZMkQFoFr43-5KPSyvA49I6GMdf4IbhDVONEvm-TyQ20QPEfYa2Q6I90a7Ebg69P7gyhKLHrkpgiO80rR2IpEPckX3us5637Mf3FiEscGO9KIFT4F8tlyvftXoOKSDkYA/s200/Singapore-Comfort--CityCab-taxis.gif" width="200" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">On the 24th of Dec, I took a look at ComforDelgro's chart. Refer to <a href="http://therichkidwannabe.blogspot.com/2010/12/comfort-delgros-climb-to-resistance.html">Comfort Delgro's Climb to Resistance Looking a Tad Weak</a>. This was what I said I feel would happen, "<i>my opinion is that prices may drop in the near term to its next support at $1.52 - $1.51.</i>" On hindsight now, this didn't happen. The 14 day moving average played a stronger support that I expected. I did also state that the ADX showed the selling trend was weak. This was probably a good clue that prices would hold up at the 14dma. A lesson on my part. That said, it did take one more dip back to the 14dma support despite crossing through the noted resistance at $1.57 showing that the initial challenge was indeed "a tad weak" and therefore heading for a mini-pullback.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">I also stated that "<i>as the market sentiment seems to be getting more bullish, my guess is that it would only be a matter of time before they push through the $1.57 resistance.</i>" Here's how that played out so far.</div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrxxS3ocPgOGO_-rP6m3siTzz86v66XePkRVlePt7xV9IeXgJ92C6RHBD8GpCuWBAbKB_H1ehOcgvmd_iAuRDLjWJqk-T6sqvJlZMKRbiQmYZvfPwOYbwdcczJVkKBvIRGtkEQLN6rYg/s1600/Comfort+cab+overview.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrxxS3ocPgOGO_-rP6m3siTzz86v66XePkRVlePt7xV9IeXgJ92C6RHBD8GpCuWBAbKB_H1ehOcgvmd_iAuRDLjWJqk-T6sqvJlZMKRbiQmYZvfPwOYbwdcczJVkKBvIRGtkEQLN6rYg/s320/Comfort+cab+overview.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">On the 06th of Jan, the resistance was finally taken out after hovering around the resistance for another week. If you notice, the 14dma has been providing strong support through the whole affair. Like any other breakout, this cause share price to spike leading it now to challenge its next resistance at $1.63. 14dma though, has yet to catch up. Some bulls are mighty optimistic. In the longer term, I'm convinced that they've every reason to be as the market sentiment is still bullish but in the short term, lets take a look at the indicators to gather the information.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-j27DvjEAINq_XNsUuHQuqo_dS5l80o9jSbmhJmur9erJUfGzdz5pG0R3Qyd8D8-KE7SNVYYj6XLsT2ii5RuoyqQ_Z_lmagtzI4Y2cVAcmn5wjGSp2I5E-MbKl4bvQlgplwq45hQblMg/s1600/Comfort+cab+daily+indicators+.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-j27DvjEAINq_XNsUuHQuqo_dS5l80o9jSbmhJmur9erJUfGzdz5pG0R3Qyd8D8-KE7SNVYYj6XLsT2ii5RuoyqQ_Z_lmagtzI4Y2cVAcmn5wjGSp2I5E-MbKl4bvQlgplwq45hQblMg/s320/Comfort+cab+daily+indicators+.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Stochastics for one, is in the overbought region. Also, it has given a sell signal. RSI and MFI looks to be heading into overbought region as well. MACD however is still trending upwards, along with OBV. ADX indicates that buy momentum is rising but the trend strength is currently weak.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">My take: As the 14dma has been providing strong support thus far, I expect this to continue. However as momentum is still positive, it is likely that instead of prices dropping back to its 14dma at $1.57, prices will continue hovering for the next couple of days while awaiting the 14dma to catch up with it. My estimate is for prices to bounce between $1.59 - $1.63. I do not expect the $1.63 resistance to be taken out just yet. With a P/E of 15 and yield of 3.25%, anyone buying into this for dividend yield may find SBS Transit a more enticing buy at the moment with a lower P/E and a better yield.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Not vested in either,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-45200570144002478432011-01-08T23:46:00.001+08:002011-01-08T23:50:18.864+08:00I Thinketh! - Do Children Today Fear Failure?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9WIBKmJOuAzpWdlDKa91htD1MLoNKQO3gCk6EqUYuzb4c0YM6hZnAA3JrvjBBSe-4wI0jJVUY02wMO54VLGxV1sDxcdt-_VTtstauSqGXEWiTWeLzNN8DwOVcS5EZuZ9eL_DAGUVYZc0/s1600/99_failure_success20_tshirt.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9WIBKmJOuAzpWdlDKa91htD1MLoNKQO3gCk6EqUYuzb4c0YM6hZnAA3JrvjBBSe-4wI0jJVUY02wMO54VLGxV1sDxcdt-_VTtstauSqGXEWiTWeLzNN8DwOVcS5EZuZ9eL_DAGUVYZc0/s200/99_failure_success20_tshirt.gif" width="196" /></a></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It's a week after New Year. School has started. My girlfriend had to go back too. She teaches. The week past by fine. Then on Friday, something happened that left her thinking, which she told me about. That left me thinking. </div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Once orientation's done in the first two days or so, lessons start. On Thursday, she was relieving a couple of periods for a teacher who was away for some reason or other. It was math class. After explaining the steps of the new topic and giving out the assignment to the new batch of primary 1 students, two students cried. One after the other. Apparently, they were afraid of making mistakes in their work. And that bothered them enough to cry. Needless to say, she had a lot of reassuring to do. So that was the incident that left us both thinking.</div></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Why are kids afraid to make mistakes? As a child, these are the times to make as many mistakes without shame. It's their learning years. They're entitled to their fair share of mistakes. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Or are they? </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">This led to a sensitive and controversial question. Are kids being raised to feel ashamed of making mistakes? </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">And to end the questions: If they're so afraid of making mistakes at their young age, how about when they're older? How will they handle their personal challenges that require some guts be it in career or in relationships?</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Mistakes are part and parcel of how we learn and improve. Observing the failures of others also helps better ourselves. To paraphrase a quote I remember reading once, "<i>A smart man learns from his mistakes. A smarter man learns from the mistakes of others</i>." </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">To conclude this little thought with a personal opinion, kids need their parents' support and assurance that it's perfectly fine to make mistakes. As long as they learn, pick themselves up, dust themselves off, move on and try again, it's alright. In doing so, they learn a lot more than just the lesson of the task. They get additional lessons in determination and letting go. Lessons in dealing with success and failure.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">It's how we live. </div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">It's how we grow.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">I learnt to cycle that way.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div><div style="text-align: justify;">Food for thought,</div><div style="text-align: justify;">~K</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br />
</div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4248330129716505096.post-66068648803937230862011-01-06T18:35:00.002+08:002011-01-06T18:36:33.435+08:00Just for Laughs - Why Silver is More Valuable Than Gold<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLPARxvc_mpNVJDmyYfEIt1V1zuqmY5r0fQiVhgHi1sEY5F-p-MfMC2Hs3BariNt5LspU0YWrzoVJtqLGD4HHubNllKPwLk0iXUsCBsgdyVT2oliEKRfVXk9sEEm6D_QTpr8hOu8mpmkk/s1600/question-mark3a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLPARxvc_mpNVJDmyYfEIt1V1zuqmY5r0fQiVhgHi1sEY5F-p-MfMC2Hs3BariNt5LspU0YWrzoVJtqLGD4HHubNllKPwLk0iXUsCBsgdyVT2oliEKRfVXk9sEEm6D_QTpr8hOu8mpmkk/s200/question-mark3a.jpg" width="160" /></a></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Since I've been posting articles and little commentaries on the precious metals these last couple of days, I thought I'd slip this little light-hearted fable in as well which I stumbled across at this <a href="http://vikramforever.blogspot.com/2010/09/silver-is-more-valuable-than-gold.html">site</a>.</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Hope you enjoy it.</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Cheers,</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">~K</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Why Silver Is More Valuable Than Gold</b></span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">There once lived a great mathematician in a village outside Ujjain. He was often called by the local king to advice on matters related to the economy. His reputation had spread as far as Taxila in the North and Kanchi in the South. So it hurt him very much when the village headman told him, "You may be a great mathematician who advises the king on economic matters but your son does not know the value of gold or silver."</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">The mathematician called his son and asked, "What is more valuable – gold or silver?" </span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">"Gold," said the son. </span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">"That is correct. Why is it then that the village headman makes fun of you, claims you do not know the value of gold or silver? He teases me every day. He mocks me before other village elders as a father who neglects his son. This hurts me. I feel everyone in the village is laughing behind my back because you do not know which is more valuable, gold or silver. Explain this to me, son."</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">So the son of the mathematician told his father the reason why the village headman carried this impression. </span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">He said, "Every day on my way to school, the village headman calls me to his house. There, in front of all village elders, he holds out a silver coin in one hand and a gold coin in other. He asks me to pick up the more valuable coin. I pick the silver coin. He laughs, the elders jeer, everyone makes fun of me. And then I go to school. This happens every day. That is why they tell you I do not know the value of gold or silver." </span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">The father was confused. His son knew the value of gold and silver, and yet when asked to choose between a gold coin and silver coin always picked the silver coin. </span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">"Why don't you pick up the gold coin?" he asked. </span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">In response, the son took the father to his room and showed him a box. In the box were at least a hundred silver coins. </span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">Turning to his father, the mathematician's son said, "The day I pick up the gold coin the game will stop. They will stop having fun and I will stop making money."</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;">The bottom line is: Sometimes in life, we have to play the fool because our seniors and our peers, and sometimes even our juniors like it. That does not mean we lose in the game of life. It just means allowing others to win in one arena of the game, while we win in the other arena of the game. We have to choose which arena matters to us and which arenas do not.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
</span></div>Kerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00374562637429589306noreply@blogger.com0