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Friday, December 3, 2010

18 Lessons in Investing from Watching the 2010 Barclays World Tour Men’s Singles Tennis Finals

I have always considered tennis as a combat in an arena between two gladiators who have their racquets and their courage as their weapons.
~ Yannick Noah

Tennis is an addiction that once it has truly hooked a man will not let him go.
~ Russell Lynes

It's no secret the rivalry between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. This has produced some of the best tennis matches in history. (Read more on the Federer-Nadal rivalry)

After hearing much about their legendary Wimbledon meet in 2008 which lasted nearly five hours, I've been kicking myself for not watching it then and reduced to watching the highlights on bad quality videos posted on YouTube. It's a real great waste I hadn't started watching tennis earlier, starting one Grand Slam later from the 2008 US Opens. Talk about a little too late! So after nearly two years of waiting and hoping, I was so excited to finally get to see them have a mini-rematch during the 2010 Barclays ATP World Tour. I only hope they'll play this well during another major championship next year. Beautiful tennis.

Date: 29th Nov
Roger Federer (Switzerland) vs Rafael Nadal (Spain)
Final score: 6-3, 3-6, 6-1

Watching the tour left me thinking about the spirit and effort they put into honing their craft and resulted in me compiling a list of lessons that investors could learn from them.

Here they are:

1) You may not pick a winner every time but when you do, make it count.
At the end of the match, statistics showed that Federer had a low percentage first serve in at 61%. However of that, 92% earned him a point as the serves were either unreturnable or were hit into the net. In investing in stocks, properties, alternative investments and what not, not every investment will make you money. Some may even go belly up. But the important thing is to aim to make those winners, WINNERS that win the game.

2) Poor service can cost you the game. Slacking off can be dangerous. 
The opening set must have taken its toll on Federer. Or perhaps he got a bit cocky. In the second set, Federer seemed to start out with lower energy and aggression causing him to make multiple errors resulting in poor plays, eventually costing him the set. In investing, it's important not slack off and/or become too cocky about a company or investment. Make sure to monitor your investments. At the minimum, take note of quarterly results and announcement to ensure nothing major has taken place.

3) You may fall trying to get that impossible shot the first time but have faith, you’ll get your chance again
In the second set, score 1-4, Nadal returned a ball that hit the net but managed to still end up in Federer's court causing Federer to slip and fall hard onto the floor in his attempt to reach it due to the sudden change in footing. However as luck would have it, Nadal hit an almost exact shot later at score 3-5. This time Federer got to it in time and sent the ball straight back into Nadal's court scoring the point.

4) Sometimes it takes a hard fall to wake you up to play better.
Surprisingly, it was only after the fall that Federer started playing better again. In investing, losing money may provide the impetus for us to learn more about ourselves and how to improve our investing styles and strategies, giving us a chance to analyze where we went wrong and correct the mistake, thereby helping us to preform better in the long run.

5) Even when you’ve been knocked down, getting back up ensures you have a chance of winning again.
Sometimes in life, hard knocks can be taken two ways, you stay beaten down or you get up, dust yourself off and do it again. It's obvious which way is better.

6) Never give up.
Throughout the game, the never say die spirit was obvious in Federer & Nadal. Both players kept going for almost every ball, even when it looked almost impossible to us audience. This resulted in quite a bit of ooohh-ing and ahhh-ing when both these players not only managed to reach these balls in time, but also hit them back into play accurately. The moral of the story? Don't give up. The more you learn from the mistakes you make, the better your chance of attaining success. To give up ensures you'll not reach it, ever.

7) If you know what you’re doing, you can do the impossible and succeed even if no one believes you can.
People who have never done what you intend to do and have no idea how hard you’ve trained and prepared yourself for it are quick to write off the success of your efforts as they're basing it on their capability. Don't be discouraged by them. The opinions that count most are those who have reached the "impossible" you're striving for. Seek their guidance and advice instead. 

8) Commentators are just that, commentators. Take what they say with a pinch of salt. 
This is to add to the previous point. People don't always agree with one another. Two different people may have different opinions on the same thing. Though they may have valid opinions, if you're going to listen to every Tom, Dick and Harry, you're going to end up mighty confused. Learn to filter advice. If you have trouble doing so, seek expert help instead. Get their feedback. Believe in yourself. Then give it your all.

9) Supporters will take you further than you think.
In life, you’ll have supporters and you’ll have jeerers. Concentrate on your supporters. They’ll provide you the extra energy to take you to the next level. The encouragement and support they give is priceless in helping you believe in yourself and make you want to try harder. Ignore the jeerers who are boo-ing. They suck the energy out of you and blur the path for you to go far.

10) Focus on the game. The crowd can distract you, but if you’re focused you can still hit a winner.
It's amazing that despite the din from the crowd, both players played wonderful tennis. Their focus was so strong resulting in their superb performance. In today's day and age with so many commitments eating into our time, focusing our abilities and concentration can be a challenge. However, investing requires this. There'll be noise in the market that can lead to emotional rollercoaster rides and make you want to sell out or buy in but if you're focused on the long term goal, the noise shouldn't matter. 

11) Plan your shots well, then do as you plan.
The long term goal needs planning. Lots of planning. Once you've settled on the goal, fix it and carry it out to its entirety with all you can muster. Don't keep shifting your goals. They'll result in you lowering them when times get challenging resulting in mediocre results when you could have achieved so much more.

12) Learn to congratulate yourself on winners and not beat yourself up over losers.
When you hit a poor shot, release the frustration but don’t lose heart. Chin up and believe the next you hit will be better.
When you hit a good shot, congratulate yourself and believe you’ll continue hitting them. Don't attribute it solely to luck and/or God, instead believe that Lady Luck or God favoured your preparation and rewarded you.

13) Know when chasing after a wild ball is gonna waste energy and stop. Conserving it for the next point may count more. 
Despite all the determination to get every ball, both players were quick to realize the waste of effort to run for a ball that was beyond themselves and was obviously unreturnable. In investing, if you made a mistake in your research or realize that the company or investment you're researching on is a waste of time, admit it and stop chasing it just to make the time you spent on it worthwhile. Cut your losses immediately and stop hoping for a rebound. 

14) Know thyself.
That said, the linking point to the previous is to know who you really are. Know your temperament, your ability to control your emotions, your stress threshold, etc. and then find an investment plan that allows your personality to complement it so that it'll be easier for you to see your investment plans through and allow you to reap maximum gains. Conflicting personality and investment plans could have disastrous results such as losing sleep during volatile periods, and cause you to pull out investments prematurely resulting in mediocre gains or even worst, losses.

15) Learn to play from all angles, it increases your chance of success.
In the third and final set, after falling and losing the second, Federer started varying his game again, producing unexpected plays and strategies which eventually won him the match. As it is in investing, keep learning and try to incorporate the relevant strategies into your plan. This prevents you from stagnating and may even help you achieve success sooner than expected.

16) Psychology is important.  Keep your head when the opponent is panicking
In the third set, it was clear that Nadal was frustrated to the point of letting it affect his game play. This caused him the match. Body language matters a lot in competitions. It changes sure winners into unexpected losers and sure losers into unexpected winners. In turn, knowing your own psychology and being able to read the psychology of the market will help immensely in helping you reap better returns. Also, if you've done your research on the investment proper, keeping a calm head will help you pick up bargains when everyone is selling. This ensures you'll be following the age old mantra of "Buy Low, Sell High".

17) Do what you love. You have a higher chance of being really good at it.
A quote from Federer in his recent interview after his triumph, "I have no plans at all, quitting, stopping - whatever you want to call it." In his book, the Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell writes that all greats had to put in a minimum of 10,000 hours fine tuning their craft to achieve their success. When you love what you do, you'll continue doing it despite the odds, and learning how to better yourself at your passion. In time, you'll reach this magic number of 10,000 hours too.

 18) Sometimes when you think your shot’s out, it just may be the point that wins the Championship. 
At match point, Federer's return barely clipped the line that resulted in a couple of seconds of uncertainty.  He looked like he was about to head back to the base line again when officials ruled in his favour winning him the championship. In investing, an example I can think of is Wilmar & Peter Lim. Peter Lim had thought of writing off his $10 million investment in Wilmar when the company sprung to life turning him into one of the richest men in Singapore. Guess it ain't over till the fat lady sings huh?

Hope you enjoyed this post everyone. Feel free to post your comments.

Cheers,
 ~K

Conditions Pretty Perfect for Gold for Now But Stay Cautious

Soros says condition ‘pretty perfect’ for gold
by Pav Jordan & Aaron Pressman

Billionaire investor George Soros may be cutting back on his gold bets, but he says the precious metal still has some kick to it, as long as conditions like low interest rates prevail.

“The conditions for [high] gold are pretty perfect,” he said at a speech in Toronto on Nov 15 to accept the Globalist of the Year award from the Canadian International Council. “The big negative is that too many people know this and a lot of hedge funds are very exposed…Gold has a tendency to go parabolic,” he said of its tendency to fall as quickly as it rises.

Soros reduced some of his big bets on gold in 3Q, trimming positions in miners including Barrick Gold Corp, Great Basin Gold and Newmont Mining. He left large positions in NovaGold Resources and Kinross Gold unchanged.

Soros has said several times this year that gold is “the ultimate bubble”. “I called gold the ultimate bubble, which means it may go higher,” Soros explained in September ar a Reuters Newsmaker event in New York. “But, it’s certainly not safe and it’s not going to last forever,”

Gold has risen sharply this year, with the SPDR trust up 23%. Spot gold hit a record of US$1,424.10 recently, without adjusting for inflation. Gold would still almost have to double in price to reach its 1980 record after including inflation.

Of late, the metal retreated from its record price on concern the market had become overbought as talk of a poetential interest rate rise in China knocked commodities sharply lower. Last quarter, as gold was approaching record highs, more of the best-known hedge fund managers were placing bets on the precious metal.

Former Goldman Sachs trader Chris Shumway’s fund added 2.1 million shares of the SPDR Gold trust and Dan Loeb’s Third Point LLC bought 115,000 shares in 3Q, according to securities filings on Nov 8. Highfields Capital added call options on 1.6 million shares of the gold exchange-traded fund and calls on 200,000 shares of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF. At the same time, Eric Mindich reduced his Eton Park Capital’s stake by two million shares to 4.6 million. John Paulson maintained a 31.5 million share holding of the ETF through the quarter. - Reuters

Source:
The Edge Singapore
Week of Nov 29 - Dec 5 '10
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