CapitaMall REIT in Trouble

All things entail rising and falling timing. You must be able to discern this. ~ Miyamoto Musashi

Since 13th of Oct, CapitaMall has been downtrending. From the chart below, this doesn't look like it's going to change soon. OBV and MFI indicate strong distribution with lower highs being formed. Furthermore the 14day moving average seems to be heading straight for a collision path with the 200day m.a., probably forming a dead cross with it. To add to this, ADX is still rising indicating that the strength of the current trend is extremely strong with black candles marking the way down since the 9th of Nov and isn't giving any indication of letting up despite Stochastics and RSI being in oversold region. RSI has also formed lower highs which bodes negatively for CapitaMall as well.

On the bright side, the past three days have seen price seemingly stabilizing at $1.86 support, in hopes of rebounding upwards. A break below this may see price retreating to the next support at $1.81. To break out of the downtrend, price must head above $1.93. Only then can we expect price to head higher.

Personally, for long term investing and as an income stock, at current price to book ratio of 1.25 and yield of 5%, CapitaMall is unattractive as a buy.

Not vested. 

~K

Heightened risks for Singapore REITs - CIMB    
Thursday, 18 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

STI Bounces Up

Stochastics signal lines crossed today as expected in Thurday's post, STI - Heading for the Next Leg?,  and the STI has bounced up higher than yesterday's close. This bodes well that price is likely to find its way back to the 50day moving average by next week, before heading higher still.

Anyone looking into investing into the STI ETF can consider nibbling into the security. However at a high of 3800 in 2008 before the crash, the current 3200 leaves about another 15% upside. This is if it heads back to its previous high. Should it exceed this, my estimate is that it'd have a maximum of 20% upside to go. Pure guesswork that but that said, PE ratios would be expensive by then too. So it'll be more likely for stocks to come back down instead of rising further. Of course I know that the euphoria  (euphemism for madness) of the crowd could drive it higher still, so I'm not wagering the house on this.

However, as the blue chips have all climbed considerably since the downturn, the best returns now lie in the penny stocks for they normally rise last in a bull market. Here's where the gems are and also where the most volatility lies though so be warned. Have a good buy and more importantly, sell plan. Investigate your company properly. Do some thorough research to prevent yourself being scared out of the stock. This recent correction is a good time to start shopping for some quality buys.

Best of luck everybody!

~K

STI falls 1.15 point, or less than 0.1%, to 3,158.08 at closing
Friday, 26 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

25% in 5 days - Lafite Rothschild 2008 Stuns Once More

A sweetheart is a bottle of wine and a wife is a wine bottle. ~ Charles Baudelaire

Seems that QE2 is really driving up the price of everything. I'm not complaining. In my previous wine news, see Fantastic Wine News - Lafite Rothschild 2008, I said I was nervous yet excited about the new high that Lafite Rothschild 2008 made due to its announcement of the placement of the Chinese symbol for the figure eight on its bottles. But to add another 25% gain in five days...wow! That's unbelievable.

I'm crossing my fingers in hope that I get the receipt of acknowledgement that the warehouse received my wine by early next year so that I'll know I'm not dreaming, and of course, more importantly, that it's all not a scam.

Wish me luck!
~K

Fine-wine prices hit new high in October; Lafite 2008 jumps 25% in five days
by Kelvin Tan

Prices of the world's finest wines surged to a new high last month, according to the latest monthly market report of London-based online wine exchange Liv-ex.com. The Liv-ex 100 Fine Wine Index, which represents the price movement of 100 the most sought-after wines, rose 2.5% in October, spurring year-to-date gains to 32%. Over a one-year period, the index was up 33.5% (as at end-October).

Wines of Bordeaux first growth estate Château Lafite Rothschild from the 2008 and 2009 vintages saw the biggest gains last month. Buying sentiment in these clarets was lifted on the back of strong buying at the Oct 29 Lafite ex-cellars auction in Hong Kong as well as the recent announcement made by the first growth estate that a Chinese numeric eight figure would be featured on its 2008 bottles.

"The Chinese symbol for the figure eight, said to bring eternal blessing and good luck, caused a large spike in demand for the wine," according to the report, which highlighted that the value of Lafite 2008 jumped 25% in five days towards end-October, after the announcement was made.

Indeed a case of Lafite 2008 (12x750ml), which was trading at £8,800 (S$18,260) prior to the announcement, skyrocketed to £11,000 in five days by end-October. For the whole month, the price of this highly sought-after vintage increased 28.3%. At current levels, Lafite 2008 is trading at a "premium" to the 2005 and 2009 vintages, observes Liv-ex.

Source:
The Edge Singapore
Week of Nov 22 - Nov 28, 2010