Experience is the name every one gives to their mistakes.
~ Oscar Wilde
I can't argue with that quote above. I blogged about Singpost a couple of days ago and said that I think it'd trend higher from the indicators (See Singpost Rebounding Strong for that big boo boo of an analysis). Thankfully JW, who runs his Wealth Buch blog and a far more experienced technical investor than moi, pointed out the error of my analysis and pointed out such an obvious downtrend channel, I felt so dumb that I had totally missed it. But thanks again JW for highlighting my mistake.
As you can see from the graph above, after Friday's trading day, JW was proved more than just right but accurate too. I've much to learn still and I hope that any of you who spot any more of my disgusting errors can point them out too.
On the bright side, after some thought on why I failed to realize the obvious, some lessons I've learnt are 1) not to analyze in a rush or when I'm tired, 2) to admit your mistakes early, 3) look at the chart first, indicators second and 4) not to let vested interest blind side me into seeing only what I want to see and not what is really there.
Well from Friday's chart, all indicators have turned downwards too, an indication that it's a strong probability the selling will continue and prices could very well fall below the 200 day moving average, supporting at $1.13.
In the long term however, prices look set to reach the 50 week moving average, which stands at $1.11 and is a rather strong support. Perhaps we would see a bounce at this price. However, falling through this support could see price dip to the next support at $1.07.
You all take care now and have a good week ahead.
~K
Hey,
ReplyDeleteyou seem to be a TA investor. Singpost actually doesn't seem appealing to me too, but from thestandpoint that while it's not exactly a sunset industry, it's monopoly has been usurped by the advent of the internetand with it's branch out to parcel delivery, it's entering a highly saturated field (with UPS and FedEx etc).
So if it doesn't reinvent itself, it would likely be a poor growth stock.
Anyway, would you like to do a link exchange?
Singaporeaninvestor.blogspot.com
Cheers.
Hi there Isaac,
ReplyDeleteGreat blog you have too. Yes, a link exchange would be great.=)
You may be right to be concerned about Singpost losing its mailing advantage. However, its Q2 financial results seem to be holding steady, mail revenue and all other segments.
The company does have good cash flow going for it too. The Q2 annoucement states that despite a seeming decrease of about $30,000++ comparing 1H 10/11 to 1H 09/10, the amount went into "investment in financial instruments". The notes elaborate to say that it is a "higher yield financial instruments comprising mainly equity-linked notes relating to dividend-yielding Singapore blue-chip companies." So putting this amount back gives us an increase in cash too.
Having said this, it wouldn't be totally right to say I'm a technical investor. I like mixing the two. But once the fundamental's done, my take is that it makes sense to do more technical to decide a good entry and exit price. But in the case of Singpost, I'm looking for more entry prices as I plan to hold this stock for the long term as I believe in the stability of its cash flow & therefore dividends.
Hope this answers your questions. Long-winded I know. Sincere apologies heh.
~K
P.S. You can check out their financial results at:
http://www.singpost.com.sg/singpost_03investor_fRes_1011_q1.htm