Starhub: Opportunity to Buy In May Be Near at Hand

In my last post on Starhub, (refer to Starhub Breakout in the Making?), I mentioned then that the opportunity to buy into the stock may have arrived but a dip to $2.63 may find it back in the downtrend channel. Prices did drop back and no confirmation of a breakout resulted, with prices dipping even lower currently to $2.57. 

That said, I also noted that the 100 day moving average has been providing strong support allowing prices to bounce up on the 21st of Dec to attempt breaking out of its downtrending channel. This didn't occur unfortunately. However, if we look at the chart, the opportunity may be close by. 

The 100dma has met the upper regions of the downtrend and may provide that extra push to prevent price from falling further. That said, indicators don't show any evidence that prices will head higher any time soon. Volume too, is much lower than the previous selloff on the 17th of Dec that resulted in the ugly black candle hinting at the probable lack of sellers. As such, we may find prices hovering around this region, bouncing from its 100dma support to its resistance at $2.65 before attempting a breakout. In other words, a triangle may result. 

As an income stock, with a dividend yield of 7.4% and a p/e of 13.8, Starhub is rather attractive as compared to its peers. However, maintaining its 20 cent/share dividend remains something of a concern to analysts.

Vested,

~K

Comfort Cab Speeding Up Too Fast?

On the 24th of Dec, I took a look at ComforDelgro's chart. Refer to Comfort Delgro's Climb to Resistance Looking a Tad Weak.  This was what I said I feel would happen, "my opinion is that prices may drop in the near term to its next support at $1.52 - $1.51." On hindsight now, this didn't happen. The 14 day moving average played a stronger support that I expected. I did also state that the ADX showed the selling trend was weak. This was probably a good clue that prices would hold up at the 14dma. A lesson on my part. That said, it did take one more dip back to the 14dma support despite crossing through the noted resistance at $1.57 showing that the initial challenge was indeed "a tad weak" and therefore heading for a mini-pullback.

I also stated that "as the market sentiment seems to be getting more bullish, my guess is that it would only be a matter of time before they push through the $1.57 resistance." Here's how that played out so far.

On the 06th of Jan, the resistance was finally taken out after hovering around the resistance for another week. If you notice, the 14dma has been providing strong support through the whole affair. Like any other breakout, this cause share price to spike leading it now to challenge its next resistance at $1.63. 14dma though, has yet to catch up. Some bulls are mighty optimistic. In the longer term, I'm convinced that they've every reason to be as the market sentiment is still bullish but in the short term, lets take a look at the indicators to gather the information.

Stochastics for one, is in the overbought region. Also, it has given a sell signal. RSI and MFI looks to be heading into overbought region as well. MACD however is still trending upwards, along with OBV. ADX indicates that buy momentum is rising but the trend strength is currently weak.

My take: As the 14dma has been providing strong support thus far, I expect this to continue. However as momentum is still positive, it is likely that instead of prices dropping back to its 14dma at $1.57, prices will continue hovering for the next couple of days while awaiting the 14dma to catch up with it. My estimate is for prices to bounce between $1.59 - $1.63. I do not expect the $1.63 resistance to be taken out just yet. With a P/E of 15 and yield of 3.25%, anyone buying into this for dividend yield may find SBS Transit a more enticing buy at the moment with a lower P/E and a better yield.

Not vested in either,

~K

I Thinketh! - Do Children Today Fear Failure?

It's a week after New Year. School has started. My girlfriend had to go back too. She teaches. The week past by fine. Then on Friday, something happened that left her thinking, which she told me about. That left me thinking. 

Once orientation's done in the first two days or so, lessons start. On Thursday, she was relieving a couple of periods for a teacher who was away for some reason or other. It was math class. After explaining the steps of the new topic and giving out the assignment to the new batch of primary 1 students, two students cried. One after the other. Apparently, they were afraid of making mistakes in their work. And that bothered them enough to cry. Needless to say, she had a lot of reassuring to do. So that was the incident that left us both thinking.

Why are kids afraid to make mistakes? As a child, these are the times to make as many mistakes without shame. It's their learning years. They're entitled to their fair share of mistakes. 

Or are they? 

This led to a sensitive and controversial question. Are kids being raised to feel ashamed of making mistakes? 

And to end the questions: If they're so afraid of making mistakes at their young age, how about when they're older? How will they handle their personal challenges that require some guts be it in career or in relationships?

Mistakes are part and parcel of how we learn and improve. Observing the failures of others also helps better ourselves. To paraphrase a quote I remember reading once, "A smart man learns from his mistakes. A smarter man learns from the mistakes of others." 

To conclude this little thought with a personal opinion, kids need their parents' support and assurance that it's perfectly fine to make mistakes. As long as they learn, pick themselves up, dust themselves off, move on and try again, it's alright. In doing so, they learn a lot more than just the lesson of the task. They get additional lessons in determination and letting go. Lessons in dealing with success and failure.

It's how we live. 

It's how we grow.

I learnt to cycle that way.

Food for thought,

~K

Just for Laughs - Why Silver is More Valuable Than Gold

Since I've been posting articles and little commentaries on the precious metals these last couple of days, I thought I'd slip this little light-hearted fable in as well which I stumbled across at this site.

Hope you enjoy it.

Cheers,

~K

Why Silver Is More Valuable Than Gold

There once lived a great mathematician in a village outside Ujjain. He was often called by the local king to advice on matters related to the economy. His reputation had spread as far as Taxila in the North and Kanchi in the South. So it hurt him very much when the village headman told him, "You may be a great mathematician who advises the king on economic matters but your son does not know the value of gold or silver."

The mathematician called his son and asked, "What is more valuable – gold or silver?" 

"Gold," said the son. 

"That is correct. Why is it then that the village headman makes fun of you, claims you do not know the value of gold or silver? He teases me every day. He mocks me before other village elders as a father who neglects his son. This hurts me. I feel everyone in the village is laughing behind my back because you do not know which is more valuable, gold or silver. Explain this to me, son."

So the son of the mathematician told his father the reason why the village headman carried this impression. 

He said, "Every day on my way to school, the village headman calls me to his house. There, in front of all village elders, he holds out a silver coin in one hand and a gold coin in other. He asks me to pick up the more valuable coin. I pick the silver coin. He laughs, the elders jeer, everyone makes fun of me. And then I go to school. This happens every day. That is why they tell you I do not know the value of gold or silver." 

The father was confused. His son knew the value of gold and silver, and yet when asked to choose between a gold coin and silver coin always picked the silver coin. 

"Why don't you pick up the gold coin?" he asked. 

In response, the son took the father to his room and showed him a box. In the box were at least a hundred silver coins. 

Turning to his father, the mathematician's son said, "The day I pick up the gold coin the game will stop. They will stop having fun and I will stop making money."

The bottom line is: Sometimes in life, we have to play the fool because our seniors and our peers, and sometimes even our juniors like it. That does not mean we lose in the game of life. It just means allowing others to win in one arena of the game, while we win in the other arena of the game. We have to choose which arena matters to us and which  arenas do not.