Breadtalk Dips But What Next?

My expectations that prices will bounce by this week hasn't materialized but my hopes that prices will dip to its 50 day moving average has come true. (See Breadtalk Buying Opportunity Soon for initial analysis.) Not only has it dipped, yesterday prices broke through the 50dma and continued heading south today. Mixed feelings about this.

From the looks of the chart, there are a couple of positives and negatives. Let me list them.

Positives:

1) Prices seem to be following an uptrend channel.

2) Price closed at support of $0.61.

3) RSI, Stochastics and MFI are in oversold regions

4) ADX reveals that the selling is not a strong trend currently.

5) Volume is low despite the selling.

Negatives:

1) Prices had trouble breaking resistance of $0.645 resulting in the dip.

2) 14dma looks to be heading to form a dead cross with 50dma by the end of the week.

3) OBV is has turned down.

4) 4 consecutive black candle days.

If selling continues, I'm expecting a dead cross to form between the 14dma & 50dma. This has a danger of plunging prices down even further thereby breaking the uptrend channel and compromsing support at $0.61 which could send prices down to the rising 200dma as well as previous resistance at $0.59. As stated, ADX doesn't show any trend forming yet despite the selling continuing as evidenced from the 4 black candle days. This gives hope that there could be a rebound especially since RSI & Stochastics indicate stocks are oversold at the moment. However with OBV turning down, and no upturn from RSI and Stochastics this gives an uncertain picture as to when the rebound might take place, if it takes place.

Shall wait a couple more days for clearer signals before deciding the course of action to take. 

Good luck peeps!

~K

K-Green - In Downward Spiral?

You can tell how high a society is by how much of its garbage is recycled. 
~ Dhiyani Ywahoo

Personally, it's a pretty bleak picture for this counter. From the chart above, Keppel Corp spin-off K-Green Trust seems to be trapped in a downtrend channel. MFI & OBV have been trending lower and making lower highs suggesting more distribution and selling. Furthermore, ADX shows that this selling trend is rather strong, above 30, and looks to be rising. -DI has also turned up and seems likely to rise higher. Lastly, Stochastics look set to cross once more despite being in oversold regions. 

Currently at $1.04, it is lying on a previous support. There's not much of charting history for this counter so it's hard to determine how strong this support is. The immediate support below this is $1.00. If all goes well, the doji formed together may signal a rebound in the coming days. But my opinion is that the rebound is only for the short term and prices may very well eventually make their way down to touch the $1.00 support as long as they stay in their downtrending channel. Needs to break above $1.08 to get out of this.

Uncertain & risky in terms of capital preservation based strictly on share price. However, there is a plus of the current yield being at 7.5% which allows share price to drop to $0.96 before any paper loss is seen. Plus support at $1.00 may prevent share prices from dropping below it. Pretty attractive as an income stock with a strong sponsor, zero gearing and a 10% discount to NAV at $1.15 per share. May get ready to accumulate if you believe in the fundamentals of the trust and if you believe in it not dropping below $0.96. Good luck!

Not vested. Just for practice. If you've any comments, corrections, pls let me know by posting below. =)

~K

Will OSIM Dual Listing Plans Cause Price to Continue Rising?

This art of resting the mind and the power of dismissing from it all care and worry is probably one of the secrets of energy in our great men.

~ Captain J. A. Hadfield

For those of you unfamiliar, OSIM is in the business of creating products designed to increase your well-being. They are known mostly for their massage chairs being the biggest maker of massage chairs in Asia, outside Japan.

The company has been doing constant share buybacks as far back as Dec last year before the recession was declared over. Most notably, the company has made more frequent share buybacks since May this year. These share buybacks have increased shareholder value by increasing its earnings per share (EPS). Do note that this does not mean the company's profits is increasing as profits may remain stagnant despite rise in EPS. OSIM however, has shown strong increase in its earnings announcing an 86% rise in its 3Q earnings y-o-y despite sales being "marginally down" attributed to the conversion of its GNC Australian subsidiary into a franchise outlet.

OSIM has been rather flat since Mar this year despite the buybacks. However, the increase in profitability in the 3Q seemed to serve as the catalist to cause the share price to rise once more. The share price has been in an uptrend since the 3rd week of Oct.

From the chart, we can see the clear uptrend, supported by the 14 day moving average.  However, Stochastics and MACD indicators show that the share has been overbought for a long time now. MFI & OBV indicates strong accumulation with MFI soon to reach the overbought zone too. However, despite being overbought, ADX shows that this trend is still very strong. Even when prices seemed to be dipping on the 30th of Nov, news of their dual listing in Taiwan caused the price to bounce higher once more. (For further readings on OSIM, pls refer to links at the bottom of this post.)

In the near term, stock price should continue trending higher. But with decreasing volume, there may be a correction at hand. Hopefully the rising 14dma will help support it. A break below the 14dma, may see prices dipping to the next support at $1.28.

Not vested. Just charting for practice. If there's any comments or corrections, pls feel free to post below.

Happy Monday everyone  =)

~K

Osim CEO Sim targets brand acquisitions to bolster China sales
Wednesday, 01 September 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Osim posts 86% rise in 3Q earnings to $13m
Thursday, 21 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Osim International up on TDR listing plans
Thursday, 02 December 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Weekend Comment Dec 3: Osim goes to Taiwan
Saturday, 04 December 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Singpost - Downtrend to continue?

Experience is the name every one gives to their mistakes. 

~ Oscar Wilde

I can't argue with that quote above. I blogged about Singpost a couple of days ago and said that I think it'd trend higher from the indicators (See Singpost Rebounding Strong for that big boo boo of an analysis). Thankfully JW, who runs his Wealth Buch blog and a far more experienced technical investor than moi, pointed out the error of my analysis and pointed out such an obvious downtrend channel, I felt so dumb that I had totally missed it. But thanks again JW for highlighting my mistake.

As you can see from the graph above, after Friday's trading day, JW was proved more than just right but accurate too. I've much to learn still and I hope that any of you who spot any more of my disgusting errors can point them out too.

On the bright side, after some thought on why I failed to realize the obvious, some lessons I've learnt are 1) not to analyze in a rush or when I'm tired, 2) to admit your mistakes early, 3) look at the chart first, indicators second and 4) not to let vested interest blind side me into seeing only what I want to see and not what is really there.

Well from Friday's chart, all indicators have turned downwards too, an indication that it's a strong probability the selling will continue and prices could very well fall below the 200 day moving average, supporting at $1.13.

In the long term however, prices look set to reach the 50 week moving average, which stands at $1.11 and is a rather strong support. Perhaps we would see a bounce at this price. However, falling through this support could see price dip to the next support at $1.07.

You all take care now and have a good week ahead.

~K