I Thinketh! - The Student and the Barometer

In physics, you don't have to go around making trouble for yourself - nature does it for you. ~ Frank Wilczek

Here's a story I read that I find extremely interesting for the relevance to our current education system. A laugh out loud punchline with a food for thought moral.

Enjoy peeps!

~K

The following concerns a question in a physics degree exam at the University of Copenhagen: 

"Describe how to determine the height of a skyscraper with a barometer." 

One student replied: 

"You tie a long piece of string to the neck of the barometer, then lower the barometer from the roof of the skyscraper to the ground. The length of the string plus the length of the barometer will equal the height of the building." 

This highly original answer so incensed the examiner that the student was failed. The student appealed on the grounds that his answer was indisputably correct, and the university appointed an independent arbiter to decide the case. The arbiter judged that the answer was indeed correct, but did not display any noticeable knowledge of physics. To resolve the problem it was decided to call the student in and allow him six minutes in which to provide a verbal answer which showed at least a minimal familiarity with the basic principles of physics. 

For five minutes the student sat in silence, forehead creased in thought. The arbiter reminded him that time was running out, to which the student replied that he had several extremely relevant answers, but couldn't make up his mind which to use. 

On being advised to hurry up the student replied as follows: 

"Firstly, you could take the barometer up to the roof of the skyscraper, drop it over the edge, and measure the time it takes to reach the ground. The height of the building can then be worked out from the formula H = 0.5g x t squared. But bad luck on the barometer." 

"Or if the sun is shining you could measure the height of the barometer, then set it on end and measure the length of its shadow. Then you measure the length of the skyscraper's shadow, and thereafter it is a simple matter of proportional arithmetic to work out the height of the skyscraper." 

"But if you wanted to be highly scientific about it, you could tie a short piece of string to the barometer and swing it like a pendulum, first at ground level and then on the roof of the skyscraper. The height is worked out by the difference in the gravitational restoring force T = 2 pi sqroot (l / g)." 

"Or if the skyscraper has an outside emergency staircase, it would be easier to walk up it and mark off the height of the skyscraper in barometer lengths, then add them up." 

"If you merely wanted to be boring and orthodox about it, of course, you could use the barometer to measure the air pressure on the roof of the skyscraper and on the ground, and convert the difference in millibars into feet to give the height of the building." 

"But since we are constantly being exhorted to exercise independence of mind and apply scientific methods, undoubtedly the best way would be to knock on the janitor's door and say to him 'If you would like a nice new barometer, I will give you this one if you tell me the height of this skyscraper'." 

It is told, that the student was Niels Bohr, who later received the Nobel prize for Physics.

Ways to Buy Silver

Silver is my preferred metal of investment. I'll elaborate more on the reasons in future posts. This post is just an introduction into the ways one can own silver as a way to diversify their investments.

There are quite a number of ways to start buying silver if one is interested.

Here's a quick list of them.

1) iShares Silver ETF (SLV)

Pros:
Very liquid; trades like a stock
Buy & Sell online
No storage cost & maintenance fee

Cons:
May not be backed by physical silver
Dependent on US timezone to buy or sell as the SLV is traded on the NYSE
Traded in US$

2) UOB Silver Savings Account

Pros:
Liquid
Bought & sold in S$
Singapore timing

Cons:
Must head to the bank to buy or sell
Bank does not store physical silver. It's all paper silver.

3) Physical Silver

Pros:
Security that you own the "real thing".

Cons:
Storage cost unless you store it at home
Illiquid
Risk of scams depending where and who you bought it from especially if 1) you can't sell it back or 2) are not holding and storing the physical metal yourself

4) Mining Companies

Pros:

Magnified price increase compared to the above 3 when price of silver increases.

Liquid

Cons:

Magnified price drops when price of silver drops.
Must research what percentage of revenue does silver make up

5) Silver Futures

Pros:
Liquid
Leverage - chance of making more money than the previously mentioned methods

Cons:
Leverage - Risk of losing more money than you have

For Singapore citizens, my suggestion would be to start a UOB Silver Savings Account. Though a little inconvenient to get to the banks, before 4pm (weekdays) or 12pm (weekends), and waiting in the queue to buy silver, this method eliminates the currency spread and brokerage fees per transaction. Especially useful if you're planning to do a monthly dollar-cost averaging investment for the long term and if you are investing in small amounts. Each transaction is subject to the minimum of 10oz, which at the current price is a total of S$361. (The daily price of gold and silver at UOB can be found here. This link can also be found at the bottom right of this blog under the Precious Metal section)

I also like the idea of owning physical silver. It's nice to admire a collection. =) But unfortunately, owning physical objects here seem to result in unbelievable premium prices above spot price. Also, there are a lack of sellers of physical silver. The only one I know of is Silver Bullion, which gets its silver from the Perth Mint, which also results in seriously huge price differences. GST also doesn't help, I'm sure you all would agree.

However, for non-Singapore citizens, my choice would be either the ETF or owning the physical. Your banks too, may have their own silver programs/products that you could invest in. But of course, I wouldn't know what other options are available in your country. Therefore, doing more research would be needed as the information here is probably incomplete.

Till next post,
~K

Breadtalk Buying Opportunity Soon?

There are people in the world so hungry, that God cannot appear to them except in the form of bread. ~Mahatma Gandhi

It's quite a correction that has been going on these last couple of days. However, Breadtalk hasn't been affected too much. As it is on my watchlist, I'm thinking of loading up on the stock to add to my meagre holdings.

Resistance is currently at $0.65 while support is at $0.62, which also happens to be the 50day moving average. A quick look at the chart shows that Stochastics and RSI are almost in oversold regions. From the MACD however, it seems that there may be a bit more selling before prices turn up proper. A good thing if you're looking to buy. Bollinger bands show prices are at the bottom of their volatile range.  Consolidation looks to be taking place as a squeeze seems to be forming which could result in a new price movement in the next couple of days. Also MFI is in the oversold region while OBV has been steady implying that quiet accumulation has been taking place while people are selling. A glance at the ADX, reveals that the strength of the trend which started on the 1st of Nov is weakening. This may mean a new trend is about to emerge. However, do note, ADX does not predict the direction of the new trend, it only indicates when a new trend might be occurring. As such, a new downtrend may form instead since it looks like the -DI will cross the +DI.

Volume however, is also low these last couple of days suggesting that not many are selling the stock despite the correction. Even the spike in trading volume on the 10th of Nov, didn't cause much movement in the price. Furthermore, the transactions made today (see table below) shows that selling was only 41,000 shares sold compared to 128,000 shares bought. 

My take: Personally, I think the chances of a new downwards trend is quite low. I'm expecting prices to bounce up by early next week. As the fundamentals for Breadtalk are good, the only thing on my mind is if I should wait for Stochastics to turn upwards and cross the signal line first before buying. Hey, after all what goes low can still go lower.

Perhaps tomorrow I'll buy in. Gotta think on this a bit. Hoping it'll drop to the 50day ma though. Lets see what happens.

~K

Fantastic Wine News - Lafite Rothschild 2008

Personal comments: I'm all excited and nervous about this piece of news in the Edge Singapore which I read 2 weeks ago. Invested in a case of Lafite 2008 with Assetton last year, Sept-Oct thereabouts. Cost price €3,600. Excited from the potential. Bit nervous that it's too good to be true.

Lafite 2008 with auspicious symbol set for price surges

~by Kelvin Tan

Bordeaux’s first-growth estate Château Lafite Rothschild, the favourite label of wealthy Asian buyers, will engrave the Chinese eight figure on its 2008 bottles to commemorate its vineyard venture into China, says Decanter Magazine. The auspicious eight symbol will be featured above the label on each of Lafite 2008’s 750ml and magnum bottles.

In partnership with China’s largest state-owned investment company, CITIC, Lafite will cultivate 25ha in Shandong’s province’s Penglai peninsula, which has been called “China’s Bordeaux” by some wine commentators.

“The shape of the symbol seems to offer a perfect representation of the slopes of the vineyard and commemorates the launch of our Chinese wine project. We wanted to remind all those who will have the pleasure of drinking these wines in a few years of this exciting undertaking,” a spokesperson of Lafite owner Domaines Baron de Rothschild told Decanter Magazine in a recent article.

“Lafite’s decision to feature the Chinese symbol of luck on all bottles of the 2008 vintage has ignited a frenzy of activity on the exchange, as merchants prepare for a sharp increase in demand from the Far East,” observes UK-based online wine exchange and research firm Liv-ex in its blog.

Lafite 2008, which is rated 98 to 100 from renowned US wine critic Robert Parker Jr, “has seen keen trade since the announcement”, according to Liv-ex, which predicts more price upside for 2008 claret. A 12x75cl case of Lafite 2008, which has quadrupled in value since mid-2009, has been bid to a new high of near £10,000 (S$20,665) at end-October from £8,300 in September, according to Liv-ex.

Source:

The Edge Singapore

Week of Nov 8 – Nov 14, 2010